POLITICS
Paul Martin (The Economist):

PAUL MARTIN'S long wait, impatiently endured, to become Canada's next prime minister is almost over. On November 14th he was crowned as leader of the governing Liberal Party, with the vote of 94% of the delegates at a convention. Four days later Jean Chrétien, the present prime minister, abandoned his long effort to thwart his former finance minister and unreconciled rival. He agreed to hand over on December 12th, rather than hang on into the new year as he had planned. After more than a year of enforced circumspection, Mr Martin is at last able to say how he wants to change Canada. He will put more effort than Mr Chrétien into good relations with George Bush's administration in the United States, and with provincial premiers at home. Mr Martin, a 65-year-old former businessman, is hardly a new face. But he will do his best to convince voters, in an election expected by next summer, that he represents a fresh start. He will spend the next three weeks forming a cabinet, which is likely to include only a minority of Mr Chrétien's ministers. To provide momentum for the election, he may postpone by a fortnight or more the recall of Parliament (prorogued by Mr Chrétien last week until January 12th), and thus of the Speech from the Throne containing his legislative plans.

Mr Chrétien, a man of working-class origins who plays politics by his instincts, curbed government deficits, took a tough line on separatism in French-speaking Quebec, opposed the war in Iraq, got on badly with George Bush, and embraced such measures as decriminalising drugs and legalising homosexual marriage. Now Mr Martin is expected to lean back to the right. During the leadership campaign, he defined himself partly by his silences on issues such as gay marriage, the Kyoto protocol on climate change (ratified by Mr Chrétien), and cultural nationalism. But he has been explicit about the importance of improving Canada's rather uneasy relations with the United States.

A 16-page policy paper released after the convention sets as a priority “attending to the security of our shared geography and common border”. This will involve developing a domestic security framework to co-ordinate the armed forces, police, intelligence and other agencies to deal with threats of terrorism—in effect a counterpart to America's Department of Homeland Security. Mr Martin plans a special cabinet committee to oversee Canadian-American relations, which he will chair. A 50-strong group of Canadian and American military commanders is already making plans to co-operate against possible terrorist threats ranging from nuclear bombs on container ships to attacks on power grids. These plans may include an integrated maritime command. But Mr Martin has ruled out a joint immigration policy for border security. The other thing he wants to change is federal-provincial relations, always a battleground in Canada. Mr Chrétien kept a wary distance from the provincial premiers. Mr Martin's first act as party leader was to fly to Saskatchewan to meet them all. They backed a planned national health council. The election this year of Liberal governments in Quebec and Ontario helps co-operation. So does the promise by Mr Chrétien of dollops of new money for health care, a headache for the provinces. Mr Martin's soft-pedalling over implementation of the Kyoto protocol goes down well with Ralph Klein, the abrasive Conservative premier of oil-rich Alberta.

Mr Martin has also hinted at ways in which he may try to please his party's left. Whereas Mr Chrétien often bullied his parliamentary caucus, the new leader promises more debate, and more free votes, to address a “democratic deficit” in Parliament. He invited Bono, a rock singer, to speak to the Liberal convention, and seems to favour his pleas for further debt relief and increased aid for Africa. The big test will be how Mr Martin handles competing demands on the public finances. As finance minister, he cut taxes and the federal debt. He is pledged to do more of both. But he would find it hard to reverse increased health spending, even if he wanted to. He also wants to help Canada's cities, whose roads and services are deteriorating, by turning over to them a generous slice of petrol-tax revenue. Plenty of contradictions lie ahead for the new leader. How he handles them will decide whether his premiership is merely a bland coda to Mr Chrétien's decade of dominance, or opens a vigorous new era of Liberal-led reform.