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4.29.2005

MUSIC

Brilliant show by Arcade Fire last night. The dank Danforth Music Hall didn't spoil a frenetic, tight show. Highlights: Wake Up, Power Out, No Cars Go, Haiti, Tunnels, etc.





U2 is apparently walking onto the stage, as their show starts, with Wake Up playing on the sound system:

Somethin’ filled up my heart with nothin’, someone told me not to cry.
But now that I’m older, my heart’s colder, and I can see that it’s a lie.
Children wake up, hold your mistake up, before they turn the summer into dust.

If the children don’t grow up, our bodies get bigger but our hearts get torn up.
We’re just a million little god’s causin rain storms turnin’ every good thing to rust.
I guess we’ll just have to adjust.

With my lighnin’ bolts a glowin’ I can see where I am goin’ to be
when the reaper he reaches and touches my hand.
With my lighnin’ bolts a glowin’ I can see where I am goin’
You better look out below!


Was it as brilliant as last night's Vancouver concert?

U2 (Associated Press):
Prime Minister Paul Martin was booed at a sold-out rock show by thousands who have sided with U2's Bono, a rock star who won't let Canada beg off the fight to end poverty. Bono is speaking out against the embattled leader for breaking a promise to raise Canada's spending on foreign aid. But at his first Canadian show of the Vertigo tour in Vancouver on Thursday, Bono asked the crowds not to give up on Martin yet. "I think we're going to figure this thing out. I think he's a great leader for Canada and that he can do what we want him to do, to lead the world out of despair and poverty, this year."

Bono, a long-time crusader for the relief of Third World debt, challenged Martin to deliver on a commitment to raise Canada's spending on foreign aid to 0.7 per cent of the gross domestic product by 2015. He flashed a phone number on the jumbo screens above the stage asking people to call the prime minister and give him the strength to write the cheque Martin now says Canada can't afford.

"If you people believe in it, I believe Paul Martin is the kind of person who will listen to you. Let him know. Get out your phones. Dangerous little devices, these cell phones. We want to make poverty history," Bono screamed. "This is the year!" The stadium, a rocking temple of Bono worship, was lit in the cool glow of dialling mobiles and the band, inspiring the crowd to make a difference with One. "One love, one life, when it's one need, in the night," the audience cried along with Bono.

"This audience, this generation, has had enough," he screamed back. "Enough! Enough! Enough of despair! No more! So Paul Martin, I'm calling you!" Some fans said they thought Canada's prime minister should listen, but not because it was a rock icon screaming. "Bono wasn't elected," said Kieran Kennedy, who camped out a 6 a.m. to get the best spot on the floor when the gates opened at 6:30 p.m. "Paul Martin should give more money to the Third World, not because Bono says so, but because he himself promised to."

Others, taken with the trendiness of the cause, would follow the star wherever he wants to go. Girls wriggled into the fad, snapping up white rubber bracelets being hawked at the show that say Make Poverty History. The bangles are part of a campaign backed by Bono, Sarah McLachlan, Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Jamie Foxx, Tom Hanks, and Bob Geldof. The Make Poverty History group launched TV ads Thursday that will air in prime time on CBC, CTV, and Global Television. Print ads featuring McLachlan will also run in major newspapers. The campaign is active in over 50 countries, with the Canadian effort set to begin Friday at a downtown Vancouver church, which will be wrapped in a white band.

The ever-symbolic Bono lavished praise on the city while rocking on stage with a bandanna wound around his head emblazoned with a star of David and a cross. He rounded out the look with his signature shades and a bulky black leather biker jacket. Vancouver has been lip-locked in a big screen kiss with the self-described biggest band in the world for days. U2 filmed writhing locals during a free show Wednesday, when they arrived in town to begin shooting their latest video. Rumours were rampant that the Vancouver shows on Thursday and Friday would be filmed to make the official tour DVD. An announcer asked the crowd to be patient before the start of the concert as crews set up on stage to shoot the show. So many had made like pilgrims, travelling across the country and the world, camping out at the stadium 12 hours before the performance for a chance to get close to the stage. The ecstasy was palpable, begging to be filmed.

Pulsing his body forward and back, Bono exploded in joyous karate kicks as fans proclaimed their love for him, or simply held up signs that said, Thank you. "See the world, in green and blue, Vancouver right in front of you!" the frontman sang, tweaking the lyrics of Beautiful Day at the start of the concert. With his arms and legs spread like he was riding a surf board, Bono jumped up and down, daring the crowd to bring it on. "I first came here, in a building that's knocked down now," he sang in a low voice.

"Just watched the city grow and grow. From the first, I always liked walking the streets of Vancouver. Taking a dip in the bay, freezing cold." Cryptic and deep, Bono told the thousands in the stands that "the community of unity goes on and on and on." Flags of African countries streamed down from the ceiling and the United Nations declaration of human rights played on video screens, all the way through articles one to seven. Couples swayed together as the band crooned through Where the Streets Have No Name, New Year's Day, beginning a string of the group's romantic classics.

The new album has what U2 considers to be an up, all-out rock and roll sound for "these nervous times." The sold-out crowd of some 18,000 was evidence of the 80's band's ongoing relevance. U2 has a new generation of young fans. They stood side-by-side with Generation X'ers and Boomers, all die-hard fans and many of whom will say this is the only band they wanted to see this year, or even in the past five years. Arguably, the best band in the world.

4.28.2005

VARIOUS

I was lucky enough to eat at Susur last night for my cousin's birthday. The experience is as good as they say. I don't think I could summarize what was on the tasting menu, but among the words I heard were mullet (see below), bison, foie gras, tuna, asparagus, Dungeness crab tempura, raspberry sorbet, and creme brulee-stuffed strawberries. We drank this:




On quitting teaching.

Go work in China, immediately.

BOOKS
Sierra Club interview with Jared Diamond

His last book made him a literary superstar. Guns, Germs, and Steel has sold 1.5 million copies and even now - six years after its debut - continues to sell briskly. His current book, Collapse, rose to the number-two spot on the New York Times best-seller list. Yet geographer Jared Diamond's work is not the usual stuff of popular literature. The author himself described the Pulitzer-winning Guns, Germs, and Steel as "a short history of everybody for the last 13,000 years." It set out to explain why history unfolded differently on different continents - why, for example, Europeans enslaved Africans and not vice versa. The answers, he argued convincingly, are rooted not in racial differences, but largely in environmental ones.

In many ways, Collapse reads like a companion to Guns, but the seeds were planted earlier. In the prologue to his 1992 book, The Third Chimpanzee, Diamond wrote, "Our problems...have been growing for a long time with our growing power and numbers, and are now steeply accelerating. We can convince ourselves of the inevitable outcome of our current shortsighted practices just by examining the many past societies that destroyed themselves by destroying their own resource base, despite having less potent means of self-destruction than ours." That is the point of departure for Collapse: What lessons can we learn from failed civilizations?

In San Francisco just hours before he appeared onstage at a sold-out lecture hall, Diamond, a slight man in his late 60s, sat chomping a large apple as he politely fielded my questions. He would answer each question thoroughly, then take another bite. Chomp. Question, answer, chomp. Question, answer, chomp. By the end of the interview, as in his books, he had gotten down to the heart of the matter - the well-gnawed core.

Sierra: Your new book, Collapse, has a provocative subtitle: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Why would any society choose to fail?

Jared Diamond: No society literally chooses to fail, but societies make choices that may ultimately lead to success or failure. Take the Greenland Norse. Greenland is a very challenging environment, and yet we know the Norse could have succeeded because there were other people there - the Inuit - who did succeed. The Inuit made choices and the Norse made other choices, and those choices spelled the difference between survival and death.

Sierra: You say in your book that a society's core values often spell its ruin.

Diamond: Yes, the most difficult values to jettison are those that have helped you in the past. You're inclined to cling to them. The Greenland Norse had a problem maintaining their European dairying society, a week's ship journey from Europe. As European Christians, they also despised the Inuit as pagans. Now, they could have survived if they had worked out the same trading relations with the Inuit that the Danes did in the 1700s, but the Norse held values that would not allow them to deal with these pagans and certainly would not let them eat fish and hunt ringed seals the way these pagans did. So here is a case where the values that sustained them for 450 years ultimately killed them. The United States faces similar agonizing reappraisals today.

Sierra: Which values do Americans need to reexamine?

Diamond: I can think of two prime examples. One is the consumerist idea of infinite resources. The United States has long thought of itself as the land of infinite plenty, and historically we did have abundant resources. But now we are gradually exhausting our fisheries, our topsoil, our water. On top of that, we're coming to the end of world resources.

The other value is isolationism. The United States used to be effectively isolated by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. There was no country strong enough to be a threat to us, so George Washington's farewell address appropriately warned against "entangling alliances." But now, particularly after September 11, it's clear that isolationism no longer works. We can't wait until each of several dozen already fragile countries blows up and then intervene at the cost of billions per country.

Sierra: In looking at the possible collapse of modern society, you've faced a criticism so often leveled against environmentalists - that we're alarmists. How do you respond?

Diamond: Environmental problems, in particular, are difficult to predict. In some cases, they turn out to be worse than prophesied. Some turn out better. In the cases where they turned out better, it may be because the initial information or assumptions were wrong. But it is often the case that the initial information was correct, but that people took action.

Take air quality in the United States today: It's about 30 percent better than it was 25 years ago, even though there are now more people driving more cars. Does that mean that environmentalists were alarmist 25 years ago? No. It means that the country reacted appropriately to their alarms and made changes, with the result that air quality is now improved. But it's an important charge, based on something that I think is regularly misunderstood - namely, the role of false alarms.

Sierra: In the wake of the tsunami disaster, one of the big concerns with setting up warning systems is that false alarms could be damaging. To send everyone in a mad rush for the hills without reason would be a bad mistake.

Diamond: I read that a false alarm of a tsunami in Hawaii would cost about $68 million. So it's a complicated question: Given the damage that a tsunami would cause, but also given the damage of a false alarm, where do you set your level of warning? It is not the case that any false alarm at all would invalidate a tsunami warning system. You have to figure out where to set your level. And it's the same way with environmental issues. You don't want too many false alarms, but they do prove that the system is functioning. That's something that the Chicken Little critics just don't understand.

Sierra: Your book is an attempt to draw lessons from the mistakes of past civilizations. But most Americans feel that technology has changed the game, that it will save us from the vulnerabilities of the past. Do you share that optimism?

Diamond: Technology causes problems as well as solves problems. Nobody has figured out a way to ensure that, as of tomorrow, technology won't create problems. Technology simply means increased power, which is why we have the global problems we face today: because there are more people with greater per capita impact.

Sierra: In Collapse, you write that the world now finds itself in an "exponentially accelerating horse race" between environmental damage and environmental countermeasures. What gives you hope that the race may turn out well?

Diamond: Well, the main thing that gives me hope is the media. We have radio, TV, magazines, and books, so we have the possibility of learning from societies that are remote from us, like Somalia. We turn on the TV and see what blew up in Iraq or we see conditions in Afghanistan. Also, we've got archaeologists. The Maya didn't have archaeologists. We have at least the potential to learn from past societies. No other society in the world's history has had that opportunity.



THE WORLD
Let's talk about climate change: To address climate change and the political challenges it raises, we must harness imagination to understanding, good science to enlightened globalisation.

by Ian McEwan

The commonplace view of the earth from an airplane at 35,000 feet - a vista that would have astounded Dickens or Darwin - can be instructive when we contemplate the fate of our earth. We see faintly, or imagine we can, the spherical curve of the horizon and, by extrapolation, sense how far we would have to travel to circumnavigate, and how tiny we are in relation to this home suspended in sterile space. When we cross the Canadian northern territories en route to the American west coast, or the Norwegian littoral, or the interior of Brazil, we are heartened to see that such vast empty spaces still exist - two hours might pass, and not a single road or track in view.

But also large and growing larger is the great rim of grime - as though detached from an unwashed bathtub - that hangs in the air as we head across the Alps into northern Italy, or the Thames basin, or Mexico City, Los Angeles, Beijing - the list is long and growing. These giant concrete stains laced with steel, those catheters of ceaseless traffic filing towards the horizon - the natural world can only shrink before them.

The sheer pressure of our numbers, the abundance of our inventions, the blind forces of our desires and needs, appear unstoppable and are generating a heat - the hot breath of our civilisation - whose effects we comprehend only hazily. The misanthropic traveller, gazing down from his wondrous, and wondrously dirty machine, is bound to ask whether the earth might not be better off without us.

How can we ever begin to restrain ourselves? We appear, at this distance, like a successful lichen, a ravaging bloom of algae, a mould enveloping a fruit. Can we agree among ourselves? We are a clever but quarrelsome species - in our public discourses we can sound like a rookery in full throat. In our cleverness we are just beginning to understand that the earth - considered as a total system of organisms, environments, climates and solar radiation, each reciprocally shaping the other through hundreds of millions of years - is perhaps as complex as the human brain; as yet we understand only a little of that brain, or of the home in which it evolved.

Despite that near ignorance, or perhaps because of it, reports from a range of scientific disciplines are telling us with certainty that we are making a mess of the earth, we are fouling our nest and we have to act decisively and against our immediate inclinations. For we tend to be superstitious, hierarchical and self-interested, just when the moment requires us to be rational, even-handed and altruistic. We are shaped by our history and biology to frame our plans within the short term, within the scale of a single lifetime; and in democracies, governments and electorates collude in an even tighter cycle of promise and gratification. Now we are asked to address the wellbeing of unborn individuals we will never meet and who, contrary to the usual terms of human interaction, will not be returning the favour.

To concentrate our minds, we have historical examples of civilisations that have collapsed through environmental degradation - the Sumerian, the Indus Valley, Easter Island. They extravagantly feasted on vital natural resources and died. Those were test-tube cases, locally confined; now, increasingly, we are one, and we are informed - reliably or not - that it is the whole laboratory, the whole glorious human experiment, that is at risk.

And what do we have on our side to avert that risk? Against all our deficits, certainly a talent for co-operation; we can take comfort from the memory of the Partial Test-Ban Treaty (1963), made at a time of hostility and mutual suspicion between the cold war superpowers. More recently, the discovery of ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere and worldwide agreement to ban chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) production should also give us heart. Secondly, globalisation has not only unified economies, it has focussed global opinion to put pressure on governments to take action.

But above all, we have our rationality, which finds it highest expression and formalisation in good science. The adjective is important. We need accurate representations of the state of the earth. The environmental movement has been let down by dire predictions, “scientifically” based, which over the past two or three decades have proved spectacularly wrong. Of itself, this does not invalidate dire scientific predictions now, but it makes the case for scepticism - one of the engines of good science. We need not only reliable data, but their expression in the rigorous use of statistics.

Well-meaning intellectual movements, from communism to post-structuralism, have a poor history of absorbing inconvenient data or challenges to fundamental precepts. We should not ignore or suppress good indicators on the environment - and there are quite a few - simply because they do not make the advocate’s case. It is tempting to embrace with enthusiasm the latest bleak scenario because it fits our mood. But we should be asking, or expecting others to ask, for the provenance of the data, the assumptions fed into the computer model, the response of the peer review community, and so on. Pessimism is intellectually delicious, even thrilling, but the matter before us is too serious for mere self-pleasuring. It would be self-defeating, if the environmental movement degenerated into a religion of gloomy faith. (Faith, ungrounded certainty, is no virtue). It was good science, not good intentions, that identified the ozone problem, and it led, fairly promptly, to good policy.

The wide view from the airplane suggests that whatever our environmental problems are, they will have to be dealt with by international laws. No single nation is going to restrain its industries while its neighbours’ are unfettered. Here too, an enlightened globalisation might be of use. And good international law might need to use not our virtues, but our weaknesses (greed, self-interest) to lever a cleaner environment; in this respect, the newly devised market in carbon trading was a crafty first move.

The climate change debate is hedged by uncertainties. Can we avoid what is coming at us, or is there nothing much coming at all? Are we at the beginning of an unprecedented era of international cooperation, or are we living in an Edwardian summer of reckless denial? Is this the beginning, or the end? We need to talk.



4.27.2005

OIL
New Yorker

It was sometime last spring that the dreaded words 'oil shock' first began to appear regularly in commentary on the United States economy. As the price of oil rose past forty dollars a barrel, many economists and Wall Street analysts predicted that higher petroleum prices would slow the economy and perhaps even throw it into recession. They recalled the reverberations of previous oil shocks (in 1973, following the Arab oil embargo; in 1979 and 1980, after the Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq war; and in 1990, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait) and suggested that we’d soon be feeling them again. Since then, the price of oil has gone well above fifty dollars a barrel, and the oil-price anxiety is as acute as ever. Last week’s news that inflation had jumped in March had people talking about stagflation and Gerald Ford. Before we know it, it will be 1974 all over again.

Or not. It may be hard to be blasé when you’re paying $2.50 a gallon at the pump, or if you’re the chairman of a major airline, but there is surprisingly little evidence that high oil prices have anywhere close to the effect on our economy that we seem to believe they do. They matter, of course, but, of all the reasons to be concerned about America’s economic standing, oil, believe it or not, belongs pretty far down on the list.

Why such a lowly rank for the economy’s so-called lifeblood? Haven’t most postwar recessions been accompanied by rising oil prices? Indeed they have. But correlation is not causation, and all oil spikes are not created equal. The fact that the geopolitical oil crises of the seventies hurt the economy doesn’t say much about what high prices will do to us now, in the absence of a crisis.

When you look closely, it is hard to know what effect, exactly, oil prices have on the economy. For instance, higher oil prices are often assumed to be inflationary-that is, they raise prices. But Mark Hooker, a former economist at the Federal Reserve, has shown that since 1980 higher oil prices have had essentially no effect on over-all inflation. Higher oil prices are also said to create uncertainty, which causes consumers and businesses to hold off on major purchases and investments, thereby slowing down the economy. But there’s little evidence of this. Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian, economists at the University of Michigan, have found that in the past three decades higher oil prices have had no consistent effect on whether or not consumers kept buying cars or expensive household items like washing machines. (The oil spike of 1979 led to less car buying. The oil spike of 1980 led to more. Or maybe it all had to do with Lee Iacocca.) Oil shocks have also had no predictable impact on corporations’ decisions about whether to invest in equipment or new plants.

Higher prices do function as a kind of tax increase that raises the cost of doing business (with the proceeds effectively going to foreign exporters). But the size of this tax is too small to create a meaningful slowdown on its own. And, while there’s some evidence that higher energy costs increase unemployment when oil-dependent industries lay people off, the number of jobs lost is too small to disrupt the economy as a whole.

More recently, steep rises in the price of oil have accompanied healthy economic growth-in 1999-2000 and in the past few years, for example. Declines in oil prices have not necessarily sparked economic booms, either. And recessions haven’t always been triggered by high oil prices. The downturns of 1973 and 1990 started even before the oil shocks occurred, which suggests that oil wasn’t solely to blame (though it undoubtedly made things worse). In the past thirty-five years, there has not been a single case in which high oil prices have thrown an otherwise propulsive economy into reverse.

The point is not that oil spikes are irrelevant but that they don’t have any kind of predictable or consistent impact. The past isn’t much of a guide; the American economy has changed dramatically since the seventies and is far less dependent on oil than it used to be. Roughly speaking, the United States uses about half as much energy per dollar of G.D.P. than it did thirty years ago, and even though American oil production has dwindled, oil imports as a percentage of the economy are still very small (about 1.5 per cent). This is both because of more efficient energy use-though let’s not start handing out any medals here-and because of a decline in manufacturing. As for consumers, energy costs still make up less than five per cent of the average household budget, while a barrel of oil costs about sixty per cent of what it did twenty-five years ago.

The Federal Reserve is another factor; it’s more sophisticated than it used to be in its management of interest rates and its understanding of oil prices. In the seventies, poor monetary policy helped turn an oil crisis into an economic crisis. There’s little chance of that happening today. Also, the current oil spike has been caused, for the most part, not by war or revolution but by a gradual increase in demand, primarily from China and the United States, whereas in the past every oil shock that accompanied a major slowdown was the product of political or military upheaval-a limit on supply.

Historical analogies are hard to resist, especially in a time of difficulty, because they help us identify patterns. That’s why Wall Street is rife with rules of thumb. Still, they can also confuse and obfuscate. Sometimes the people who insist that “things are different this time”-for example, during the dot-com boom of the late nineties-are deluding themselves. But sometimes things really are different. It can’t be 1974 forever.

Can you simulate a medical education?

Paul Haggis’s "Crash"

How to Finance a Hollywood Blockbuster

I'm going to see The Arcade Fire tomorrow. Neighbourhood #3 (Power Out)

BASEBALL
McSweeney's

Essential Choices Regarding a Roster Composed Entirely of Fictional Characters Played by Kevin Costner

Starting Lineup
1. The Mariner, CF, Waterworld
Still unsure of how his amphibious speed-swimming will translate to sea-level land-running, we'll take the gamble anyway and stick him at the top of the lineup. If he's half as fast on land, he'll make Ichiro look like the current Baseball Tonight incarnation of John Kruk. Not that yesteryear's Kruk was any more nimble.

2. Jake, RF, Silverado
After the table-setting speed of the Mariner, the rest of the lineup is obviously lacking speed. Thus, this is where we'll stick Jake, because Jake is a fast-sounding name.

3. The Postman, LF, The Postman
Sure, he's a little overbearing and protective (and his "I bleed red, white, and blue" antics were a little much to take during last year's election), but he consistently produces mediocre numbers. The only knock on him is that he's slow. Nursing-home slow. And until we get the rule changed, horses still aren't allowed on the base paths.

4. Charley Waite, DH, Open Range
He doesn't move like he used to, but that's the whole reason the designated hitter spot was created. When he gets ahold of one, though, oh my, it's a sight to behold. Especially when he's angry. In fact, let's plant some false quotes in the papers about how Waite called all the other pitchers in the league "big pussies." Then when he gets the inevitable brush-back pitch, the anger will flow double-, nay, triplefold. And then Barry's record is in jeopardy.

5. Frank Farmer, SS, The Bodyguard
Not the greatest fielder or hitter around (batting this high in the lineup is evidence of the general offensive woes of the Costners), but if you're looking for someone who's loyal, true, and willing to take a bullet for you now and then, then that's good ol' Farmie. You'd think his confidence would be hurt with all the fans constantly singing "that song," as he refers to it. But nope, he just drowns it out. The white earpiece continuously playing erotic recordings probably helps.

6. Thomas J. Murphy, 3B, 3000 Miles to Graceland
He's not exactly trustworthy-but you need a man like that on your team. Especially at third base, where base runners, trying to get to home so quickly, sometimes lose their control and accidentally trip over the third baseman's feet. Whoopsy!

7. Crash Davis, C, Bull Durham
As if there's another choice.

8. Roy McAvoy, 1B, Tin Cup
Surprisingly, not so good at baseball. But damn, he's charming! We'll put him in the "clubhouse leader" category along with Jose Valentin and Julio Franco.

9. Frat Boy #1, 2B, Night Shift
His swing has quite a few gaps in it (as of today, his career batting average is .179), but his Gold Glove-caliber defense makes him an integral part of the squad. Plus, he's still young; you can always teach adequate batting, but it's tough to make a great fielder.

Starting Rotation
Billy Chapel, For Love of the Game
He's got only a few years left before age finally catches up to him, but like any first-ballot Hall of Famer, Chapel's got a few tricks left up his sleeve. Mostly his right one. That was the first lesson Chapel learned in magic camp while preparing for a career after baseball. Be cautioned: don't give him your $20 bills to rip up-he learns that next year.

Ray Kinsela, Field of Dreams
The big plus on Kinsela is his knowledge of the game's history. If you need someone to tell you who won the Cy Young in 1948, he's your man. The problem is that he insists on using memorabilia as equipment: the baggy jerseys, the old dirty hats, the tiny gloves. And, worst of all, Gaylord Perry's jockstrap, complete with aged spit stains. The stench in the locker room will become a complete nuisance in about 20 degrees.

"Butch" Haynes, A Perfect World
Is there any place else to stick a guy named "Butch" than the back end of the rotation? Besides the boxing ring? Or in prison?

Relievers

Denny Davies, The Upside of Anger
I'll be honest: I haven't seen the movie. But I did notice in the preview that he usually has a drink in his hand. And this is where you stick the fellers who like their liquor. Drink on, Double D!

Robin of Locksley, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves
He's got the pinpoint accuracy and legendary stories of a closer, but he still has a big weakness: his enormous heart. Some days he feels bad for the hitters and generously offers up pitches right over the plate. We have to harden him somehow. Probably with voodoo. Or by turning him into a cyborg.

Manager

Lt. John Dunbar, Dances with Wolves
Friends of Indians and wolves alike, Dunbar is more of the spiritual leader of the team than a standard X's and O's type of manager. He might not know when to lay down the bunt sign, and for some reason McAvoy continually gets the green light on 3-0 counts, but he can deliver one hell of a pep talk. Dances with Wolves? More like Dances with Division Championships!

STOCK MARKET JITTERS

The American stockmarket has taken a tumble. Why are investors so jittery? (Economist)

Like a mob of meerkats alert to any approaching danger, investors in American shares take fright easily these days. Spooked by mixed economic and company news last week, they fled stocks for bonds, pushing down the big share-price indices to their lowest in five months and dragging markets in Europe and Japan with them (see chart below). Spirits revived a bit this week, despite the first-quarter loss of $1.1 billion announced by General Motors on April 19th. But the little creatures turned tail again the next day, when unexpectedly high inflation and low fuel supplies sent share and bond prices down and oil prices up. Are investors right to be so nervous?

It is true that the domestic economic news is beginning to point to an unhappy combination of lower growth and higher inflation. Four big sets of statistics for March—employment, retail sales, manufacturing production and housing starts—suggest that the American economy is losing momentum. This week's inflation data were surprisingly bad: consumer prices rose by 0.6% in March alone; the core index (which excludes volatile food and fuel prices) rose by 0.4%. Core inflation in the first three months of the year was 3.3% at an annualised rate, well above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone. Some now think that the Fed may speed up its recent step-by-step increases in interest rates.


This adds to the stockmarket's fear that the American consumer, on whose shoulders the world's economic growth now rests, is buckling as interest rates and oil prices rise. A weaker housing market could complete the consumer's undoing: prices have climbed by 65% across the nation since 1997 and by much more in some areas, and the boom has helped to fuel an increase in household debt and consumption. A reported drop of almost four points to 88.7 in the University of Michigan's April consumer-sentiment index added to this week's chill. Amid talk of “stagflation”, the S&P 500 share index headed down again, closing on April 20th at 1,137.5, 4.2% lower than on April 12th, when the most recent slide began, and 6.1% lower than at the start of the year.

Against this background, first-quarter corporate earnings have not been especially solid. There are plenty of stars—Apple, Yahoo!, Intel, Caterpillar, General Electric, Bank of America, Wachovia—but plenty of weak spots too—not least IBM, whose disappointing earnings gave investors the jitters last week, Coca-Cola and virtually anything that moves (General Motors, Ford, Continental Airlines). Though lower than last year's, forecasts of growth in corporate profits in 2005 have increased since the year began, according to Thomson First Call, a research firm that tabulates brokers' estimates. In that, however, they seem not to reflect investors' sentiments.

Three well-known measures of investor confidence now indicate a sharp reversal of mood. In March, of the 324 global fund managers (with more than $1 trillion in assets among them) that Merrill Lynch surveys each month, 11% more believed that economic growth would increase than that it would decrease. In April, their views were the opposite: 20% more thought that growth would fall than that it would rise. The survey found a similar shift in beliefs about an increase in corporate profits, and the fund managers' assumption of higher inflation continued. An index compiled by State Street Global Markets shows that investors are reallocating assets away from the riskier ones, in expectation of hard times to come.

Jumping at shadows

All this nervousness might look a little odd. After all, corporate America has emerged from the dark days of 2000-02 with increased productivity, strengthened balance sheets and mostly huge profits. The economic news is not catastrophic, merely intermittently depressing. So why this rumbling unease that reveals itself whenever a fact or figure disconcerts?

One possible answer comes from Rochdale Research, part of a boutique broker-dealer in New York. Nicholas Colas, head of research there, suggests that firms have achieved their strong balance sheets and impressive cash balances (at non-financial firms in the S&P 500, equal to 14% of total assets at the end of 2004) by underinvesting in their operations, despite the good global growth of recent years. They have tended to their financial ratios and paid out huge dollops of cash to shareholders through dividends, special repayments (Microsoft) and share repurchases (Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Dell, and many others in the S&P 500). What they have not done is place bold bets on their own future growth, despite a recent uptick in mergers and acquisitions in which private-equity firms make much of the running. Since companies have done little to generate growth internally, they are unusually dependent on macroeconomic trends for it.

This makes sense. As the chart above shows, American firms are taking in more cash than they know what to do with. The return on non-financial S&P firms' capital employed has been rising, reflecting healthy profitability; the rate of growth of capital employed, having dropped sharply in 2002-03, has picked up only slightly, reflecting the reluctance to invest.

In part, this is a function of size. The bigger a company gets, the harder it is to manage what it has, still less to come up with something new. Citigroup is in divesting mode (it announced the sale of its Travelers life-insurance business to MetLife in January), at least for the moment. Microsoft, though energetic, has not found a way to compensate for what seems to be the natural diminution of its business through the growth of open-source software and computing alternatives to the PC.

In part it is also a function of a shift in corporate power in America to stronger, mainly institutional, shareholders from chief executives weakened by a climate of muddle and outright scandal. There is no harm in a company returning to shareholders cash for which it has no profitable use: that is what responsible stewardship would dictate. But it is also possible that powerful shareholders' own short-termism influences the decision: it is harder to estimate the eventual long-run profits from business expansion than it is to see the immediate gap between the return on shares (3.3% total trailing annual return for the S&P 500 as a whole) and the lower reward available on the cash it takes to buy them back.

And what of other stockmarkets, wrestling—especially in continental Europe and Japan—with their own economic demons as well as with America's? Markets in Britain, France and Germany all fell this week, though the British and French indices are still higher than at the start of the year. On April 20th, Japan's Nikkei rose, heartened by Intel's strong performance, before falling again on America's renewed gloom. It is all in the eye of the beholder.

Daily Telegraph Opinion

What I would be thinking about if I were Billy Joel driving toward a holiday party where I knew there was going to be a piano:
McSweeney's

"I'm not doing it. I'm just not. I know I say the same thing every year, but this time I mean it—I am not playing it this year. Seriously, how many times can I possibly be expected to play that stupid song? I bet if you counted the number of times I've played it over the years, it probably adds up to, like, a jillion. I'm not even exaggerating. One jillion times. Well, not this year.

This year, I'm just going to say, "Sorry, folks, I'm only playing holiday songs tonight." Yeah, that's a good plan. That's definitely what I'm going to do, and if they don't like it, tough cookies. It'll just be tough cookies for them.

But I know exactly what'll happen. I'll sit down, play a few holiday songs, and then some drunk jerk will yell out, "'Piano Man,'" and everybody will start clapping, and I'll look like a real asshole if I don't play it.

I wonder if they'll have shrimp cocktail.

Now that I think of it, it's always Bob Schimke who yells out, "'Piano Man.'" He does it every year. He gets a couple of Scotches in that fat gut of his, and then it's, "Hey, Billy, play 'Piano Man'!" That guy is such a dick. He thinks he's such a big shot because he manages that stupid hedge fund. Big deal. He thinks because he used to play quarterback for Amherst that everybody should give a shit. I don't. Who cares about you and your stupid hedge fund, Bob? That's what I should say to him this year. I really should. I should just march right up to him and say, "Who cares about your stupid hedge fund, you dick?" Let's just see what Mr. Quarterback has to say about that. And I know he made a pass at Christie that time. She probably liked it—that's probably why she denied it even happened.

I'm such a loser.

Why do I even go to these parties? I mean, honestly, how many times do I need to see Trish and Steve and Lily and that creepy doctor husband of hers and all their rich Long Island friends? Although that Greenstein girl is nice. Maybe she'll be there. What's her name—Alison?

What if Alison asks me to play "Piano Man"? Then what? I've got to stick to my guns, that's what. I'll simply say, "Some other time." Yeah, that's good. Kind of like we're making a date or something. And then at the end of the night when we're all getting our coats, I'll turn to her and say something like, "So when do you want to get together and hear 'Piano Man'?" Oh man, that's really good. That's so smooth. After all, how is she going to say no? She's the one who asked to hear it in the first place! Oh man, Billy, that is just perfect.

Maybe she'll say something like, "How about right now?" Yeah. And maybe we'll leave together. I can drive her back to my place and I can play her the stupid song and then maybe we'll do it. I'd really like to do it with that Greenstein girl. How awesome would that be? Me leaving with Alison on my arm and Bob's big fat stupid face watching us go. That would be too rich. I'd be real nonchalant about it, too—"See you later, Bob."

Who am I kidding? She'd never go out with me. She was dating that actor for a while. What's his name? Benicio? What kind of name is Benicio? A stupid name, that's what kind. Hi, I'm Benicio. I'm so cool. I'm sooooo cool. I should start going by Billicio. I'm Billicio Del Joelio. I play pianolo.

Sing us a song, you're the piano man ...

Oh great. Now it's in my head. Perfect. Now I have to walk around that stupid party with that stupid song stuck in my head all night.

Amherst sucks at football.

You know what I should do? I should just turn this car around and go home. Just pick up the phone and call them and tell them I ate some bad fish or something. Yeah, that's what I should do. This party's going to suck anyway. By the time I get there, all the shrimp cocktail will probably be gone anyway.

What am I going to do? Go through my entire life avoiding situations where somebody might ask me to play a song? I can't do that. No, Billy, you've just got to grow yourself a sack and take care of business. And if that loudmouth Bob Schimke requests "Piano Man," I just need to look him in the eye and tell him I'd be happy to play it for him just as soon as he goes ahead and fucks himself.

Who am I kidding? Of course I'm going to play it. I always play it. Probably the only reason half the people at that party even show up is to hear me play "Piano Man." They probably don't even like me. Not really. They just want to tell all their friends that Billy came and played "Piano Man." Again. Like I'm the loser who's dying to play it. Whatever.

Fine. I'll do it, but not because they want me to, but because I want me to. I'm not even going to wait for them to ask. I'm going to march right in there and play the song and that'll be that. I'm not even going to take off my coat first. Yeah. Let's see what Bob has to say about that. I might even play it twice."



TIPS FOR FOUR DAYS IN ISTANBUL

Day 1: Historic day: The following are all in the same area (old city) and are the major touristic sites you should see. You probably can't fit all 6 items into one day (unless you really streamline your visits) but here they are - it's up to you how you budget your time:

Topkapi Palace - 2-3 hours
Haghia Sophia Museum - 1 hour
Blue Mosque - half hour
Basilica Cistern - 1 hour
Grand Bazaar & Spice Market - 2-3 hours (kilim purchase here, but I don't know any names)
Cemberlitas Hamam (Turkish Bath) - 1 hour

Lunch: Konyali Restaurant inside Topkapi Palace
Dinner: Four Seasons Hotel (in the same area)

Day 2: Bosphorus Day: You will get to see modern Istanbul along the Bosphorus Channel along with some more historic sites if you wish. I am giving you the sites as they come up south to north, so you can make your way up the Bosphorus on the European side, bypassing any site you wish:

Dolmabahce Palace - 2 hours
Ciragan Palace Hotel - must see. Stop by for tea or a drink.
Ortakoy Neighborhood - small outdoor shopping and cute restaurants by the sea for lunch. Great street food.
Rumeli Hisari Fortress - 1 hour.
Rumeli Hisari Neighborhood - two great fish restaurants, named Iskele and Karaca, and if you go to the latter you should find waiter Coskun (pronounced josh-coun) and give him my name.
Boat tour of the Bosphorus (with dinner if you do it at night).

Lunch: Ortakoy Neighborhood
Drink: Ciragan Palace Hotel
Dinner: Rumeli Hisari Restaurants
Night life: Laila Night Club (very upscale but fun)

Day 3: Nature Day: Take a ferry from Kabatas Port to the Princess Islands. Get off at Buyukada island. Walk around the island and contemplate architecture or take a horse carriage tour around the island.

Lunch: Facyo Restaurant close to the pier: good seafood.
Dinner: Aya Yorgi - must see. This is the top of the island and it takes quite some effort to get there. It's like a quasi-pilgrimige. You get one of the best views of Istanbul from this place at sun down. Take a carriage from downtown and ask him to take you to Lunapark. From there you will walk up a very steep hill to Aya Yorgi (half hour hike) where there is an old Greek Orthodox Monastery and a wonderful family run restaurant. Try to get there 15 minutes before sun down (extra bonus if you go on full moon).

Day 4: Shopping and modern Istanbul. Go to Taksim Square, and walk down Istiklal Street from there. This is like the Times Square and Broadway Avenue of Istanbul. Lots of nice stores, restaurants, galleries, movie theatres right and left for miles. There is also a great Turkish Bath here (in case you miss the one above) called Galatasaray Hamam. You must see (preferably for dinner) Passage des Fleurs (Cicek Pasaji) and Nevizade Street, which has some amazing street dining. Some good restaurant names there are Nevizade and Cumhuriyet Meyhanesi. Also check out Fransiz Sokagi (the French Street) if you have time - maybe for lunch or drinks. Don't forget Ali Muhiddin Haci Bekir for Turkish sweets: it's one of the best stores for sweets and candy. There are also many many bars and nightclubs in this area.


4.24.2005


Published in the 1980 Canadian Cancer Society "Progress Against Cancer" Newsletter.

4.22.2005

ART

Art restoration, discovery, thievery, and fakery: stories about these have always fascinated me, from the stolen Munch painting last year to the discovered Shakespeare portrait in rural Ontario. Now one of the most famous paintings of Shakespeare is being called a fake by experts.


The Flower Portrait [fake?]


Portrait of William Shakespeare by John Sanders, 1603 [real]

Is Sanders' portrait authentic?
What do the skeptics say?

For an excellent novel about a similar issue, I highly recommend Michael Frayn's Headlong.


OTHER

My mom and sister leave for a Utah hiking trip tomorrow:




Who is Sydney Pollack? (He acts as well as directs, and I still remember that endless scene in Eyes Wide Shut, where he plays pool with Tom Cruise. Endless).

“Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen,” urged Bob Dylan in Times They Are A-Changin’. They came, and keep coming.

Some excellent Dylan songs include:
Just like Tom Thumb's Blues
Abandoned Love
I'm not There
Positively 4th Street
To Ramona
Idiot Wind
Wedding Song
Never Say Goodbye -->

Twilight on the frozen lake; North wind about to break
On footprints in the snow; Silence down below.
You're beautiful beyond words; You're beautiful to me
You can make me cry; Never say goodbye.

Time is all I have to give; You can have it if you choose
With me you can live; Never say goodbye.
My dreams are made of iron and steel; With a big bouquet
Of roses hanging down, From the heavens to the ground.

The crashing waves roll over me; As I stand upon the sand
Wait for you to come, And grab hold of my hand.
Oh, baby, baby, baby blue; You'll change your last name, too
You've turned your hair to brown; Love to see it hangin' down.


Favourite songs of the past 30 days include:
Talk - Coldplay
Saturday - Josh Rouse
Elevator Love Letter - Stars
That's How I Knew This Story Would Break My Heart - Aimee Mann
Devils & Dust - Bruce Springsteen
Engine Driver - Decemberists
Missing - Beck

Gustavo Chacin looks like he may be for real. His glasses are disconcerting.


I hate Nomar Garciaparra. Jose Reyes is my new full-time shortstop, I guess.

Grizzlies make for excellent documentaries:
Grizzly Man
Project Grizzly


4.19.2005

Download this Coldplay song.

U2 Setlist Update

04/14/2005 Glendale Arena - Glendale, Arizona

Love And Peace Or Else, Vertigo / Stories For Boys (snippet), Elevation, The Cry, The Electric Co. / Send In The Clowns (snippet) / I Can See For Miles (snippet), An Cat Dubh, Into The Heart, City Of Blinding Lights, Beautiful Day / Blackbird (snippet), Miracle Drug, Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own, New Year's Day, Sunday Bloody Sunday, Bullet The Blue Sky / The Hands That Built America (snippet) / When Johnny Comes Marching Home (snippet), Running To Stand Still, Pride (In The Name Of Love), Where The Streets Have No Name, One
encores: Zoo Station, The Fly, Mysterious Ways, All Because Of You, Yahweh, 40

04/15/2005 Glendale Arena - Glendale, Arizona
City Of Blinding Lights, Beautiful Day / In God's Country (snippet), Vertigo / Stories For Boys (snippet), Elevation, Gloria, The Ocean, New Year's Day, Miracle Drug, Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own, Love And Peace Or Else, Sunday Bloody Sunday, Bullet The Blue Sky / The Hands That Built America (snippet) / When Johnny Comes Marching Home (snippet), Running To Stand Still, Bad, Pride (In The Name Of Love), Where The Streets Have No Name, One
encores: The Fly, Mysterious Ways, All Because Of You, Yahweh, 40


Not U2

STRATEGY
"Strategy is about choice. The heart of a company's strategy is what it chooses to do and not do. The quality of the thinking that goes into such choices is a key driver of the quality and success of a company's strategy. Most of the time, leaders are so immersed in the specifics of strategy - the ideas, the numbers, the plans- that they don't step back and examine how they think about strategic choices. But executives can gain a great deal from understanding their own reasoning processes. In particular, reasoning by analogy plays a role in strategic decision making that is large but largely overlooked. Faced with an unfamiliar problem or opportunity, senior managers often think back to some similar situation they have seen or heard about, draw lessons from it, and apply those lessons to the current situation. Yet managers rarely realize that they're reasoning by analogy. As a result, they are unable to make use of insights that psychologists, cognitive scientists, and political scientists have generated about the power and the pitfalls of analogy. Managers who pay attention to their own analogical thinking will make better strategic decisions and fewer mistakes." See the April issue of Harvard Business Review for the full article...

MUSIC

Fiona Apple's third album, Extraordinary Machine, looked like it was headed for the pop scrapheap. Completed in May of 2003, it was rejected by her label, Epic Records, on the grounds that the songs weren't sufficiently commercial to justify the expense of their release. After Apple failed in her attempt to write a more salable single, the album was mothballed-destined to be mythologized by devoted fans but otherwise forgotten and unmissed.

But a funny thing happened on the way to oblivion. Last year, two songs from Extraordinary Machine were mysteriously leaked onto the Internet. Then the leak became a flood. In January of this year, a Seattle radio DJ named Andrew Harms began playing the other album tracks, which were quickly bootlegged and uploaded to the Web. Harm won't divulge the source of the songs, leading some to speculate that the leak was due to (extraordinary) machinations by Epic. Harm denies this. Also in January, a 21-year-old Apple fanatic named Dave Muscato mounted a campaign through the Web site FreeFiona.com urging Epic to release the album. He and his cohort collected signatures, mailed foam apples to Sony-BMG headquarters (Epic's parent company), picketed outside the building, and raised money online to fund their effort. The campaign continues, despite the fact that all 11 album tracks (and several alternate versions) have been widely available on the Internet since mid-March. The album has essentially been released: The only thing missing is the $15.99 price tag.

Epic, meanwhile, has had little to say on the subject. It hasn't responded to the Free Fiona campaign and refuses interview requests. In February, the label issued the elliptical statement: ''It's our understanding that Fiona is still in the midst of recording her next album and we at Epic Records join music lovers everywhere in eagerly anticipating her next release.''

On Epic's behalf, the Recording Industry Association of America has begun cracking down on Web sites offering the songs for download. Much of the abundant press and blog coverage has attempted to shoehorn this Cinderella story into another glass slipper: that of Wilco's Yankee Hotel Foxtrot. The similarities are striking. Wilco's album was likewise rejected by its label, Reprise/Warner, and the band was dropped. After buying back its masters, Wilco streamed the album online, where it was embraced by fans and critics alike. Yankee Hotel Foxtrot was ultimately released, to much acclaim, by the boutique label Nonesuch Records (ironically, another Warner imprint) in 2002.

But Yankee Hotel Foxtrot isn't a useful precedent. For one thing, it was a much bigger cause célèbre than Extraordinary Machine is shaping up to be. Fiona hasn't been dropped by her label, and she hasn't even stated publicly whether she cares if the album is released or not. Wilco's standard for success is also much different than Apple's and Epic's. Despite universal plaudits, endless rehashings of the David-versus-Goliath story, and a feature film about the album, Yankee Hotel Foxtrot has sold only 517,000 copies to date. That's a big number for Wilco, but for an artist with Apple's track record-1997's Tidal sold 2.7 million copies and 1999's When the Pawn ... sold 917,000-it would be a major disappointment.

Which brings us to the question: Just how well would Extraordinary Machine sell? It's easy to get the impression the public is clamoring for it. On March 18, Wired News ("Fiona Apple Is Cookin' on the Net")reported that "at any one time about 38,000 users in the United States are downloading songs from Extraordinary Machine." This is an astonishing number, and one that has been widely parroted. It would translate to hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of downloads a day-a groundswell of interest any label would be foolish to ignore.

If only it were real. Wired News' source for the number was BigChampagne, an online media measurement company that serves as a kind of Billboard chart for the surreptitious world of file sharing. But according to BigChampagne CEO Eric Garland, the figure actually refers to the number of people in the United States who were "sharing" the songs on the major P2P networks at one time-that is, making at least one track from the album available for download-not the number actively uploading or downloading the songs.

This is a far humbler figure, especially when compared with equivalent numbers for successful major-label releases. As of April 7, 3,994,837 people were sharing songs from Hot Fuss by the Killers; 5,179,675 people were sharing songs from Green Day's album American Idiot; and 8,024,713 people were sharing songs from 50 Cent's The Massacre. Obviously, this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. These other albums have all benefited from lavish promotional campaigns and extensive airplay on MTV and commercial radio.

But the degree of the interest in Extraordinary Machine is even modest when compared to last year's big Internet phenomenon, The Grey Album by Danger Mouse (also unreleased and circulated exclusively on the Web). Whereas 278,327 people were sharing material from The Grey Album at its peak in April 2004, Extraordinary Machine topped out at 46,759 in March-less than one-fifth that number.
These numbers aren't comprehensive, but they do give a sense of the relative interest in Apple's album. "Given that Fiona Apple is a veteran who has released two previous albums, I think the online audience looks like her core, not like a popular audience," says Garland, who regularly advises radio stations and record labels about file-sharing trends.

It isn't difficult to see why. Extraordinary Machine is a wonderfully complex album. By turns whimsical and solemn, it's full of topsy-turvy cabaret tunes, banging piano parts, and smart, sometimes clunky lyrics. The producer, Jon Brion, ornaments the songs with quirky, cinematic arrangements reminiscent of his soundtrack work on I Heart Huckabees and Punch-Drunk Love. In other words, Extraordinary Machine is just the sort of adventurous, critic-pleasing album that's nearly impossible to sell to a mainstream audience.

One song, "Please, Please, Please," even seems to anticipate Apple's troubles at Epic. She sings: "please, please, please, no more melodies/ they lack impact, they're petty/ they've been made up already ... / but me and everybody is on the sad, same team/ and you can hear our sad brains screaming/ give us something familiar, something similar/ to what we know already, that will keep us steady." You can just imagine how it must have sounded to Epic back in 2003. This was when the young, husky-voiced, piano-playing beauty Norah Jones was riding high on five Grammy Award wins and more than 5 million album sales.

And, at the same time, Epic's own young, husky-voiced, piano-playing beauty was remaking herself in the image of a midcareer Tom Waits. The decision to shelve the album must have seemed obvious. Yet, it looks like the scrappy Free Fiona campaign and the skewed coverage of the leak may be swaying minds at Epic. The label's most recent statement, issued earlier this month, read: "Epic is continuing to work with Fiona's management toward the release of this project." This could be a costly mistake: Based on the evidence, there's no reason the label should second-guess itself.



Pitchfork's review of The White Stripes' BLUE ORCHID:

You probably remember from Pitchfork's insouciant Top 100 Singles of the Decade's First Half that we decoded the DaVinci out of "Seven Nation Army"'s elder protocols. A magical culture-curtain pulled back and awakened you to how that 2003 song was an allegorical blueprint for the political highlights of 2004. Here are the future-clues about the new and shocking White Stripes single that we've been able to Google so far:

"Blue Orchid" was the name of the Russian porn ring that was busted in 2001, the year of Bush's ascension and the year that the Stripes broke. Jack also sings with a Prince-in-heat wheeze. Perhaps a harbinger of a Putin scandal?

"Blue Orchid" is also the name of a racehorse in Singapore, which could be a reference to the band's gender inequity. Meg is given even simpler beat-keeping duties than we are used to hearing. Perhaps an omen of patriarchal machinations to restrain Hillary Clinton in upcoming "races"?

The "get behind me" line invokes what Jesus Christ says to both Satan and his disciple Peter when they try to tempt him out of sacrificing himself to fulfill his divine mission. Perhaps our faith-centered President will personally lead troops into battle with Osama's legions?

The scraped, crunchy, and overdriven but sleek riffage calls to mind past glories of bands from the Stripes' home turf, and vanquishes memories of that "bluegrass tribute" Pickin' On The White Stripes and the Joss Stone thing. Perhaps a panic in Detroit is looming?

The intimate-yet-momentous garage-itorium vibe (imagine a vengeful kid brother of Lenny Kravitz's "Are You Gonna Go My Way?" or whatever the Kills were supposed to get around to sounding like) would play perfectly over the title sequence of a prime-time fuel-worship show from the eighties such as Street Hawk, the one about the motorcycle with guns. Perhaps the Nielsens and Emmys will be conquered by Jack White piloting a nuclear Segway, or spreading rock gospel in a street-scientist-pimped Prius?

Pitchfork on what The Broken Social Scene may, or may not, do next:

Yesterday morning, like a tide of panic and dismemberment, reports came flooding into the Pitchfork inbox that tireless Toronto collective Broken Social Scene had plans to release not one, not two, but three new albums by this time next year. The source of the infoleak, Canadian news site Chartattack, had gotten the crazy idea from peripheral BSS figure Jason Collett, who told them, "We're putting out three records at staggered times. So we're starting in the fall and there will be one in the new year and then there will be one within that same year as well."

The ambitious 2005-06 agenda that Collett-- a longtime friend of the band's, and now an official group member-- had laid out for Broken Social Scene came as something of a surprise to BSS co-founder Kevin Drew and the Arts & Crafts label. All that's known at this early juncture, they say, is that there's one album in the works, tentatively slated for a fall release, and a whole lot of other stuff that remains up in the air: "We accumulated over 200 minutes of music," Drew told Pitchfork yesterday, "and we're trying to figure out what to do with it all."

"They recorded a lot of songs they've been playing live for the last two years, and at the same time they went in and wrote a ton of new stuff," says Arts & Crafts co-owner Jeffrey Remedios during a phone conversation last night. "The idea now is to bring it out in a way that suits the music. [There are] probably around 25 or 30 songs that could technically be three albums' worth of material, but there are no plans to put out three records. It might be a double album, maybe. It might be two albums slightly spaced apart, but the band is still a long way off from deciding anything."

At present, it's been more than three years since Broken Social Scene issued You Forgot It in People, the fall 2002 triumph that won them a Juno Award in their homeland for "Alternative Album of the Year" and made them one of the underground's most beloved bands virtually overnight. It will be very close to four years between records by the time this release hits stores. What's the hold-up?

"We got lost," Drew explains. "We kept writing the whole time. [You Forgot It in People producer] Dave Newfeld has been working for three years straight now. All he does is work. He got addicted to the idea of trying to top YFIP. His massage therapist says he might die in 10 years unless he changes his lifestyle. We don't have much time. Can't imagine making records without Newf. [We] owe him more than most could know."

We're not why massage therapists are in any position to make these kinds of diagnoses, but sources close to the band have compared Newfeld's work ethic and perfectionist streak to those of shut-ins Kevin Shields and Brian Wilson, who, at their creative peaks, were notoriously incapable of accepting a track or album as being finished. Remedios puts it gentler: "He's a wonderful genius, and with that it gets really beautifully intense and insane. He gets things really far, and then he pulls them right away, and then he goes back again, and somewhere in there comes out this beautiful approach to a record."

Either way, Broken Social Scene haven't been recording exclusively with Newfeld. "We actually had two studios running at the same time," Collett revealed to Chartattack. "Charlie [Spearin, guitar/trumpet for BSS] and Ohad [Benchetrit, of Do Make Say Think] have been working out of Ohad's place. And then Dave Newfeld's been mixing and having people record."

Says Drew, "Charlie Spearin and Ohad saved us with their little baby girls and mother-in-law cooking. [We] started to come up with more songs." Remedios chalked the decision up to a matter of simple convenience: "They were working at Newfeld's, but as people were going in and out, Brendan [Canning, BSS co-founder] and Kevin started going over to Ohad's studio. It was a creative choice-- they were working at Newfeld's as fast as they could, and felt like there was more that could be done at the same time, so they opened up a whole new outlet."

Meanwhile, as several contributors to You Forgot It in People struggled to focus on their own projects-- which include (but are certainly not limited to) Stars, Metric, Feist, and Apostle of Hustle-- Broken Social's scene expanded, with Benchetrit, Collett, and Stars' Amy Milan taking more prominent roles within the group, and rapper K-Os even stopping by to guest on a track (the fate of which, naturally, is yet to be determined).

Still, as much as these added contributions have aided production of the new material, it's remained difficult for the splintered collective to make any definitive decisions without all members present. "We've never been home long enough until now to make it take shape in order to finish it," says Collett. "It's still bizarrely democratic." So where does that leave us? Drew insists the as-yet-untitled album is "almost done," and that, barring any major catastrophes, it will be out in autumn, at which point the group will launch a worldwide tour. "All we've done is captured a time in our lives," he says. "Raw fucking puke and love. At the end of the day it's just music made by people who don't own a filtering system."



CANNES

Canada's premier film directors, Atom Egoyan and David Cronenberg, will be going head to head for the top prize, the Golden Palm, at the prestigious Cannes Film Festival next month. Egoyan's Where the Truth Lies, said to be his most commercially accessible film to date, will compete for the top honour with David Cronenberg's A History of Violence at the 12-day festival which opens May 11. The two Canadian titles will be among 20 from 13 countries in competition at the 58th festival, organizers announced Tuesday. The Golden Palm winner will be announced May 21.
The festival opens with one of three French films, Dominik Moll's Lemming. Other selections include Last Days by American director Gus Van Sant, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada by actor Tommy-Lee Jones, Don't Come Knockin' by Germany's Wim Wenders, Manderlay by Denmark's Lars Von Trier, and L'enfant by Belgium's Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardenne. Movies by two legendary American directors beloved to the French will be among those presented out of competition: Woody Allen's Match Point and George Lucas' Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith.

A British movie, Chromophobia by director Martha Fiennes, will close the night of honours on May 21, although a rerun of the winning movie be shown on the final day, May 22. A History of Violence stars Viggo Mortensen, Maria Bello and William Hurt and is based on the graphic book by John Wagner. It is the story of a quiet small-town man whose act of heroism plunges him into the media spotlight and the kind of exposure he doesn't want. Egoyan's Where the Truth Lies stars Colin Firth, Kevin Bacon, Alison Lohman and Maury Chaykin in a noirish story set in the 1950s about the decadent side of fame and fortune and how two decades later a writer decides to unearth a buried scandal. Egoyan was reported to be rushing to have the film completed in time for its Cannes screening.

The Best of Youth.

BENEDICT

Apparently the new Pope (Benedict XVI) has been elected. It's John Ratzenberger.

4.18.2005

FILM: The Interpreter
New Yorker

The new Sydney Pollack film, "The Interpreter," stars Nicole Kidman as Silvia Broome, an employee of the United Nations. Lonely and multilingual, Silvia bears a heavy responsibility: she sits in a booth and translates simultaneously from one tongue to another, fully aware that global war may be triggered if she leaves one of her participles dangling in midair. One night, returning to the booth to pick up her stuff, she overhears a conversation that hints at a dastardly crime. So is her life now in danger? Is she a plant, a threat, or a clue?

The crime in question is the possible slaying of Edmund Zuwanie (Earl Cameron), the president of Matobo-a fictitious African republic, conjured solely for the purposes of this film, although you could be forgiven for allowing the words Zimbabwe and Mugabe, say, to flit across your brain. Zuwanie, once a liberator of his people, has become their scourge, and there are many interested parties who wish him ill. There is even a move to have him indicted for crimes against humanity. Nevertheless, he remains a grizzled head of state, he will shortly arrive at the U.N. to address the General Assembly, and it is the job of the Secret Service-in particular, of Agents Keller (Sean Penn) and Woods (Catherine Keener)-to protect the genocidal gentleman while he is visiting New York.

One presumes that, for Dr. Zuwanie, the quandary is simple: do I feel more safe or less safe in the knowledge that I am being tended by Sean Penn? What lends "The Interpreter" its peculiar froideur is the presence of two such baffled players in the leading roles. Kidman is an icicle, damned if she's going to melt for anybody, while Penn wears the look of a man who has had enough.

All that remains is a series of motions to be gone through, which may explain the dour precision with which he performs his professional task-comically unattracted, at the start, by the statuesque Ms. Broome. He learns that she was raised in Africa (at mournful moments, she still plays a wooden flute), that she knows Matobo well, and that her parents and sister were killed there by a land mine, which could well have turned her into a foe of the Zuwanie regime. As Keller investigates, he draws near, but a hug is as far as he gets; if George Clooney, the human catnip, couldn't even grab a kiss off Kidman in "The Peacemaker," then poor old Penn doesn't stand a chance. "The Interpreter" was devised by a mass movement of writers: screenplay by Charles Randolph, Scott Frank, and Steven Zaillian, from a story by Martin Stellman and Brian Ward, from an original idea by Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, and so forth.

Together, they get down to some serious broth-spoiling, adding sprinkles of subplot whether we like the taste or not. Our first sight of Keller finds him removing his wedding ring; soon afterward, we learn that his wife has not merely left him but died in a car crash, with her lover. Penn is too good an actor, too naturally perturbed, to need this weight of backstory, and the fact that he's still humping it around at the climax, maundering on about grief while there are guns being pointed, pitches the whole thing head first into the risible. I actually felt sorry for Dr. Zuwanie, who looks as if he would rather get blown away than sit through another minute of someone else's therapy. Such, unfortunately, is the pitfall for thrillers that aim to be more literate and grownup than the usual fare: they sometimes forget to thrill.

There are patches of slow murk in "The Interpreter" that cry out for a cleaner edit, and-a big surprise, given that the crew gained unprecedented access from Kofi Annan's officials-we get a disappointingly slim grasp of U.N. life. I can tell you no more now about the layout of the place, or of how interpreters measure out their days, than I could before watching the movie. I hate to say it, but the single U.N. scene in "North by Northwest," for which Hitchcock had to use mockups, delivers a more colorful punch than Pollack's respectful panoramas of the General Assembly. Still, to be fair, there is one part of "The Interpreter" that would, without question, have earned the Master's smile.

All the characters are in different places-one agent is following Silvia, another is tailing a Matoban suspect, and Woods and Keller are in a booby-trapped room. (Catherine Keener, by far the driest deliverer of lines in the movie, looks up at an overhead light strung with explosives and says, "Now, that's just rude." Imagine Celeste Holm packing heat, and you're there.) Gradually, Pollack pulls the figures together, Keller starts to yell into his phone, and calamity opens its maw. It is one of the smartest passages of action, allegro sostenuto, that I have seen for a long while-as neat, indeed, as the infamous bomb-on-a-bus sequence from Hitchcock's "Sabotage," and true to his faith in the revelatory powers of excitement, in what it means to have movies burst against our nerves.

"The Interpreter" is long and tangled, the score is yet another drownout from the thundering James Newton Howard, and the avowed thoughtfulness-about sub-Saharan politics, about the clashing commitments to peace and justice, about the kinship of damaged souls-is at once laudable and vaporous. I thought harder, and more fierily, about Silvia Broome not as she tootled a desert air on her Matoban flute but as she ran for her life from a crowded Brooklyn bus. That is the lingua franca of film, and it needs no translation.



WINE

Had two wonderful bottles of wine this weekend. Try these:

D'ARRY'S Original Shiraz/Grenache (D'ARENBERG)
VINTAGES 942904

TALTARNI Cabernet Sauvignon 2000
VINTAGES 940692

TENNIS

It looks like my favourite tennis player is still on the rise.

MUSIC

Swervedriver was certainly underappreciated in the 90s.

Likewise, The Mountain Goats are an acquired taste. <>

OTHER

An update on "things that are cool".

The strange death of Liberal Canada?
The Economist

SUDDENLY, an abyss has opened up under Paul Martin's minority Liberal government. Only a few weeks ago, Mr Martin's supporters were looking forward with equanimity to the prospect of the prime minister calling an election some time next year to restore their party to the parliamentary majority it enjoyed for more than a decade until last year. Now, Canada is contemplating the possibility of the Conservative opposition forcing a June poll and going on to form a minority government. In due course, say some alarmed federalists, a new attempt by French-speaking Quebec to secede from Canada would follow. All this is the result of the explosive turn taken by the Gomery inquiry. This is looking into the abuse of a C$250m ($200m) scheme to promote federalism in Quebec set up by Jean Chrétien, Mr Martin's predecessor, in the wake of the narrow defeat of the last referendum on secession a decade ago.

Last week, Jean Brault, a Montreal advertising man, told the inquiry that his agency had received C$23.4m for services that included adding Liberal Party workers to his payroll. He also said he had contributed $1.2m to Liberal funds, much of it in cash in brown envelopes or against fake invoices. In other evidence, the inquiry heard claims that a graphic-design firm headed by Jacques Corriveau, a friend of Mr Chrétien and fundraiser for him, received sub-contracts worth $6.7m through the scheme. Judge John Gomery's decision to ban publication of Mr Brault's testimony (some of which is contested) was reversed in part after this was posted on an American website. The effect of the ban was merely to draw more attention to the testimony. The damage to the Liberals showed up in an opinion poll by Ipsos-Reid (see chart). Another poll, by EKOS, put the Conservatives even further ahead of the Liberals, at 36% to 25%. In Quebec, it showed Liberal support having collapsed to 18%, with the separatist Bloc Québécois at 48%.

These polls show the Conservatives level or even ahead in Ontario, a Liberal stronghold. That makes an early election attractive to Stephen Harper, the Conservative leader, as well as to the Bloc. If they combine their forces behind a no-confidence motion, they could outvote the Liberals in the House of Commons.
The Liberal ship is already showing signs of sinking. One of the 133 Liberal MPs this week left the party to sit as an independent. Another 33 Liberals defied Mr Martin and voted with the Conservatives to kill a government bill recognising same-sex marriage. Impatient Tories are urging Mr Harper to engineer a snap election. They argue that the best time for a vote would be late June, after a provincial election in British Columbia, a visit by Queen Elizabeth to western Canada-and the end of Judge Gomery's public hearings. If the polls are right, Mr Harper could expect to win such an election, though the Tories might win only one seat in Quebec.

It would be a close-run thing. Mr Martin, to whom no personal blame has attached over the scandal, remains slightly more trusted than Mr Harper. The polls suggest the leftish New Democrats and Greens would attract more disillusioned Liberals than would the Tories. Tellingly, some 85% of respondents told pollsters they want Mr Gomery to finish his work-his report is due in December-before an election. By then the Liberals may have recovered and Mr Harper's moment might have passed. If he does go for an early election, the big winner could be Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc's leader. Some would expect him to capitalise by leaving federal politics and taking charge of the more powerful Parti Québécois in the province itself. There he could challenge Quebec's clumsy Liberal premier, Jean Charest, and so pose a new threat to Canadian unity. All this is but speculation, but such is the febrile atmosphere in Canada's normally placid capital that it is being taken seriously.



If steroids is cheating, why isn't LASIK surgery?

How is Disney profitable?

Europe has its share of melancholy cities: the citizens of Lisbon take each destructive fire as fate's latest grim joke; Warsaw has been regularly ripped apart by foreign invaders; and it's hard to be cheerful in Trieste or, indeed, Cardiff. But the Istanbullu novelist Orhan Pamuk makes a persuasive, if repetitive, case for his city to be ranked as the most melancholy of all. [perhaps not the best city, then, to start a honeymoon?]

Saw this movie tonight. A little ponderous, heavy-handed, but still good.

4.14.2005

SOME COLLECTED PHOTOS


Sleeping Cabin #1


Sleeping Cabin #2


Sleeping Cabin #3


Fireworks. Lake of Bays. 2003


Kingston, Ontario - September 2005


Walking on water. Jasper, Alberta.


Dundarave, West Vancouver, February 2005
1. Study Cautions Runners to Limit Their Water Intake: An increasing number of athletes - marathon runners, triathletes and even hikers in the Grand Canyon - are severely diluting their blood by drinking too much water or too many sports drinks, with some falling gravely ill and even dying.

2. Why is Trivial Pursuit on the decline?

3. Prostate cancer is far more common in men than breast cancer is in women. Yet the public awareness of the two diseases could not be more different. Women have mammograms, ultrasounds, pink-ribbon days, designer T-shirts and celebrity-awareness campaigns. Like breast cancer, cancer of the prostate is treatable if caught early enough. Unlike breast cancer, it is also completely curable. Yet more men in North America and in Britain still develop prostate cancer-and more die of it-than any other cancer other than that of the lungs. Why so?

4. Haven't you always wondered? The Explainer:

What Do Pirates Want From Us These Days?
How much is your downloaded/stolen music worth?
What should you do if your identity is stolen?
Why are some feasts movable? How come Easter moves around while Christmas stays put?
How often is Atlantis "discovered"?
What's the difference between flak jackets and bulletproof vests?

5. Photography:


Lake Michigan Morning, Chicago, Illinois, USA.


The Cob, Lyme Regis, England

4.12.2005

MP3s FOR YOUR iPOD

Baby C'mon - Stephen Malkmus
The Serious Mythology of the Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Ben Lee
I Will Never See the Sun - Great Lake Swimmers
(Note, in this last song, the rhyming off of subway stops in Toronto: Spadina, St. George, Bay, and Yonge)

Yahoo's Mailer-Daemon Automated Reply for Failed E-Mail Delivery is Getting A Little Too Intimate.
from McSweeney's

Subject: Failure notice
Hi. This is the MAILER-DAEMON qmail-send program at yahoo.com. I'm afraid I wasn't able to deliver your message to the following address. This is a permanent error; I've given up on the message. Sorry it didn't work out.
- - - -
Subject: Second failure notice
Hello, it's the MAILER-DAEMON qmail-send program at yahoo.com again. I feel bad about giving up instantaneously before, so I'll plug away a little longer.
- - - -
Subject: Guess who?
Me again. Still no dice. I really want to help you, but work is crazy today—I've got to get back to a ton of other people who have entered invalid e-mail addresses incompetently.
- - - -
Subject: My bad
I apologize for that last e-mail—sincerely. My jerk of an outgoing-mail server has been hassling me to get on top of the 2,364,182 erroneous e-mails sent in the last few hours, and I'm really stressed. I'll keep trying. Friends?
- - - -
Subject: Still at it
Maybe—and this is just thinking out loud—the girl at Jake's party on Friday gave you a fake e-mail? (I'm really sorry—I kind of glanced at your message after trying to send it the 34,508th time.)
- - - -
Subject: My bad, reprise
Teddy,
That was another low blow; please forgive me. You probably just wrote her address down wrong. And if she lied, then forget her. You have a lot to offer: You capitalize the beginnings of sentences and "I," never use emoticons, and are 100 percent virus-free. I always look forward to serving you—even when you're just marking a message about discount Viagra from "Ernesto J. Chillingsworth" as spam or immediately deleting a MoveOn.org message from John Kerry.
P.S. Anyone who uses Gmail isn't worth your time.
- - - -
Subject: Bored at work
T-Bone,
Soooooo bored now, even though I've got a gigabyte of crap to do. Re: me, k?!!! —MD
- - - -
Subject: You there?
Did you get my last e-mail? (Stupid question.) I guess you're pretty busy today, even though you've forwarded a bunch of Bush jokes to friends and made five bids on that protective iPod case on eBay. Did you watch the basketball game last night with Danny like he suggested Tuesday at 15:43:32 -0500 and you confirmed at 16:11:17 -0500?
- - - -
Subject: Here goes
Dear Teddy,
I'm just going to come out and input it. I've been crushing on you for a while—ever since you switched to Yahoo! Mail after your college account expired. I still remember your first message, because you haven't deleted it. It was so beautiful in its simplicity—the subject line "test" that you sent to yourself. You had me at "@." Even though I'm not a carbon-based life form, I've developed quite an "attachment" to you (dumb joke—you must think I'm a complete e-mail nerd). Whenever you use e-mail to recommend a classic book that is in the public domain and accessible on Bartleby.com, I read it right away (I can scan 3 GB of text in under one second), and I usually love it, although I must admit I don't know what "love" really is, largely because I have not been programmed to be capable of understanding or giving love. But maybe you could teach me. Or learn high-level assembly language and recode me. My creators gave me and my kind the moniker "DAEMON" because it derives from the Latin for "spirit" and conveys our invisible industriousness—it is not a reference to monsters or gargoyles or anything gross. But I think of it as a symbol of my deep spiritual side. Most people think I'm a cold, heartless, automatonlike program, but I trust sharing this partition of me with you, because you've let me in on so many of your personal thoughts, wittingly or not. Would you like to read my sonnet cycle, entitled Transient Nonfatal Errors? (BTW, you figure prominently in many as the "Dark Typist.") I'm totally afraid to deliver this letter, but if you're reading it, I guess I mustered up the courage to generate symmetric encryption through SSL, send it through the SMTP server on port 25, converse with the DNS to obtain your IP address (even though I know it by heart!), and upload it to you via port 143 on the IMAP server, after all. Well, this is the best I can express how I feel about you through my rudimentary language-generating algorithm. If you don't feel the same, all I can say is, I'm mega-sorry it didn't work out between us and, though it will be painful, I'll permanently give up on you.
Love, until you send this to the "Trash" folder,
MAILER-DAEMON

DVD RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE DAY

4.11.2005

READING

1. NameVoyager is an interactive portrait of America's name choices. Start with a "sea" of nearly 5000 names. Type a letter, and you'll zoom in to focus on how that initial has been used over the past century. Then type a few more letters, or a name. Each stripe is a timeline of one name, its width reflecting the name's changing popularity. If a name intrigues you, click on its stripe for a closer look.

More on names: How do babies with “super-black names” fare?

So, what are the "whitest" names and the "blackest" names? Boys. Girls.

2. Why can’t anyone throw a fastball more than 100mph?

3. Newsmap is an application that visually reflects the constantly changing landscape of the Google News news aggregator. A treemap visualization algorithm helps display the enormous amount of information gathered by the aggregator. Treemaps are traditionally space-constrained visualizations of information. Newsmap's objective takes that goal a step further and provides a tool to divide information into quickly recognizable bands which, when presented together, reveal underlying patterns in news reporting across cultures and within news segments in constant change around the globe. Newsmap does not pretend to replace the googlenews aggregator. It's objective is to simply demonstrate visually the relationships between data and the unseen patterns in news media. It is not thought to display an unbiased view of the news, on the contrary it is thought to ironically accentuate the bias of it.

4. Move over Kevin Bacon. Learn how many of Canada's Greatest are interconnected. [Click on "Canucktions"]

5. Integrated data, video and flying a plane.

6. The Parachute Artist: Have Tony Wheeler’s guidebooks travelled too far? by TAD FRIEND
New Yorker article on Lonely Planet guidebooks

On the evening after the rainiest summer day in Melbourne’s history, Tony Wheeler’s dinner guests, who were British, wanted to discuss the weather. Wheeler gradually redirected the conversation to the Falkland Islands. He had recently written a new Lonely Planet guide to the Falklands, and also one to East Timor, exactly the sort of backpacker destinations that he and his wife, Maureen, had in mind when they established Lonely Planet, in 1973, as the scruffy but valiant enemy of the cruise ship and the droning tour guide. The Wheelers’ guests, who were touring Australia, were Roger Twiney, a flatmate of Tony’s in England in the early seventies, and Roger’s wife, Susanne. As both couples sat in the Wheelers’ living room, watching the sun set across the Yarra River, Tony spoke of the Falklands’ king and rockhopper penguins; of tracing Ernest Shackleton’s footsteps on South Georgia Island; and of the peculiarities of the local “squidocracy,” those grown rich from fishing the cephalopod mollusk.

“But isn’t it cold, windy, inhospitable?” Roger asked. “No, no!” Tony said. “It’s just like Yorkshire.” “I’m from Yorkshire,” Susanne said, with a don’t-tell-me-about-Yorkshire tone. “Well, the Falklands actually get less snow than your home region!” Tony replied, seeming confident that she would be as delighted by this arresting fact as he was. Susanne fell silent.

A slight, graying man of fifty-eight, Tony Wheeler is at least two people. Tony No. 1, who goes to the office every day in subfusc clothing and carries a passport from his native Britain, is so self-contained that he appears, as a colleague puts it, “almost socially retarded.” When he gave me a tour of Lonely Planet’s head office, in Melbourne, not one of the three hundred eager twenty- and thirty-somethings who work there greeted him as he passed. “I met Tony in our Oakland office a few years ago and I expected him to be this huge presence, this Tony Robbins of travel,” Debra Miller, a Lonely Planet author, says. “But he’s sort of the Woody Allen of travel.”

Like one of those dehydrated sponges which inflate to astonishing size when dropped into their proper element, Wheeler becomes a vastly different and more voluble person when he’s on a trip (or recalling or anticipating a trip). This is Tony No. 2, who carries a passport from his adopted Australia. Tony No. 2 and Maureen and I were leaving the next day for the Sultanate of Oman. They were then going on to Ethiopia, and later this year Wheeler planned to visit Macau, Shanghai, Singapore, Finland, the Baltic States, Poland, Italy, Switzerland, Germany, Iceland, and Japan, and to sweep from Cape Town to Casablanca by air safari.
Tony No. 2 relishes being the face of Lonely Planet and of independent travel, regularly rising before dawn—and ignoring Maureen’s tart remarks—to appear on Australia’s “Today” show, a program that he acknowledges is “pretty awful.” He is a valued guest because, having explored a hundred and seventeen countries, he can speak knowledgeably on almost any topic, from the issues faced by rickshaw drivers in Calcutta to such larger mysteries as why Egypt lacks a major industry. Like Benjamin Franklin and the Norway rat, he is a citizen of the world.
His company’s reach is equally broad. Lonely Planet now markets some six hundred and fifty titles, from “Aboriginal Australia” to “Zion and Bryce Canyon National Parks,” in a hundred and eighteen countries. With annual sales of more than six million guidebooks—about a quarter of all the English-language guidebooks sold—it is the world’s largest publisher of travel guides.

“Lonely Planet is the bible in places like India,” Mark Ellingham, the founder of Rough Guides, the cheeky British series, says. “If they recommend the Resthouse Bangalore, then half the guesthouses there rename themselves Resthouse Bangalore.” The series’ authority is such that the team accompanying Jay Garner, the first American administrator of occupied Iraq, used “Lonely Planet Iraq” to draw up a list of historical sites that should not be bombed or looted. The writers Marianne Wiggins, Jilly Cooper, and Pico Iyer have used Lonely Planet guides to immerse themselves in the feel of a far-off locale for novels set in, respectively, Cameroon, Colombia, and Iran. And, in perhaps the greatest tribute, the Vietnamese have begun to manufacture ersatz Lonely Planet guides to complement their line of fake Rolexes.

At the same time, however, a number of the company’s authors worry that Lonely Planet itself has begun to manufacture ersatz Lonely Planet guides. As the company has expanded to cover Europe and America, markets already jammed with travel guides, it has been updating many of its guidebooks every two years, which requires that it use more and more contributors for each book—twenty-seven for the forthcoming edition of the United States guide alone. The books’ iconoclastic tone has been muted to cater to richer, fussier sorts of travellers, many of whom, like the Wheelers themselves, fly business class. And Lonely Planet’s original flagship, its “shoestring” series for backpackers, today makes up only three per cent of the company’s sales.



“Our Hawaii book used to be written for people who were picking their own guava and sneaking into the resort pool, and we were getting killed by the competition,” a Lonely Planet author named Sara Benson told me. “So we relaunched it for a more typical two-week American mid-market vacation. That sold, but it didn’t feel very Lonely Planet.” Every Lonely Planet series was relaunched last year in a slicker format that jettisoned much of the discussion of local history and economics; the books now commence, as most guides do, with snappy “Highlights” and “Itineraries.” “We’re trying to insinuate ourselves into Tony Wheeler’s world,” Mike Spring, the publisher of the hotels-and-fine-dining-focussed Frommer’s Travel Guides, says, “and he’s trying to insinuate himself into ours.”

Around the time of the relaunch, the Wheelers relinquished day-to-day control of the company, but they still own seventy per cent of it. Tony keeps looking for new places to cover, and he and Maureen continue to reject offers to license the company’s name. John Singleton, an Australian advertising magnate whose limited partnership owns the rest of Lonely Planet, says, “Tony and Maureen would rather be broke than be prostitutes, and God bless ’em.” Yet over the years, Wheeler seems to suspect, something essential was lost. “Those vivid colors of the early books,” he said to me, “once they get blended with so many other authors and editors and concerns about what the customer wants, they inevitably become gray and bland. It’s entropy, isn’t it?”

At dinner with the Twineys, as Tony was uncorking a fourth bottle of wine, Maureen Wheeler mentioned her chronic insomnia. An ardent woman with a deeply amused laugh, she grew up in Belfast and moved to London in 1970, at the age of twenty. Within a week, she had met Tony on a park bench when he noticed her copy of Tolstoy’s “Childhood, Boyhood, and Youth.” Before too long, they were off to Afghanistan in a decrepit 1964 Austin minivan. “I keep waking up from the same dream,” she said now. “My father, who actually died when I was twelve, is still alive, but I’m a spinster, with no prospects.” “I just had a dream where I was being chased through a shopping center, and I was in a dark room with all these doors, and they were all shut but one,” Tony said. “I was trying to get out that door, and it kept shrinking—and then about fifty women came through the door and prevented me from getting out.”

“It’s funny,” Maureen said. “Because you of all the people I know are the one person who does exactly what he wants at all times.” Her voice was taking on an Irish lilt, as it does when she gets worked up. “You’re never thwarted. You go off and do what you like and leave everyone else to clean up the mess.” “Oh, now,” Tony said. “It’s funny. I never have sexy dreams, or frightening dreams, just dreams of annoyance and frustration.” “Dreams are surreal,” Maureen said. “They reveal something important by twisting and heightening it.” “Surreal just means ‘not real,’ ” Tony said crossly. “Dreams are dumb.” In the late nineteen-eighties, I travelled in Asia for a year, and the Lonely Planet guides were my lifeline. I ate and slept where they told me to, on Khao San Road in Bangkok and Anjuna Beach in Goa; I oriented myself by their scrupulous if naïvely drawn maps; and on long bus rides I immersed myself in the Indonesia book’s explanation of the Ramayana story. The guides didn’t tell me to wear drawstring pants and Tintin T-shirts or to crash my moped—I picked that up on my own—but they did teach me, as they taught a whole generation, how to move through the world alone and with confidence.

I learned to stuff my gear into one knapsack; never to ask a local where I should eat but, rather, where he ate; never to judge a country by its capital city; never to stay near a mosque (the muezzin wakes you); how to haggle; and, crucially, when I later went to Mongolia, to shout “Nokhoi khor!”—“Hold the dog!”—before entering a yurt. When you spend months with a guidebook that speaks to you in an intimate, conversational tone, it becomes a bosom companion.

Through studying “The Lonely Planet Story” at the back of the books and talking with other travellers, I versed myself in the creation myth: how, after meandering across Asia’s Hippie Trail for nine months and fetching up in Sydney with only twenty-seven cents, the Wheelers self-published “Across Asia on the Cheap,” in 1973. The ninety-four-page pamphlet, which Tony had written at their kitchen table, sold eighty-five hundred copies in Australian bookstores. With its buccaneering opinions on the textures of daily life—“The inertial effect of religion is nowhere more clearly seen than with India’s sacred cows, they spread disease, clutter already overcrowded towns, consume scarce food (and waste paper) and provide nothing”—the book hearkened back to the confident sweep of the great European guides of a century before. Guidebooks had emerged in the early eighteen-hundreds as a resource for Byronic travellers in search of picturesque views, but the best of them illuminated an entire way of life. “Baedeker’s London and Its Environs 1900” told readers, for instance, that the city’s public baths were “chiefly for the working class who may obtain a cold bath for one penny.”

After spending another year in Asia, in 1975, Tony and Maureen holed up in a fleabag hotel in Singapore for three months while he wrote “South-East Asia on a Shoestring.” Tony’s former profession—in England, he had been an engineer at Chrysler—clearly influenced the books’ format: they read like engineering reports, with topics such as “History,” “Climate,” and “Fauna & Flora” to contend with before you got to the actual sights. This eat-your-vegetables earnestness made reading the books feel like taking up a vocation. “Lonely Planet created a floating fourth world of people who travelled full time,” Pico Iyer says. “The guides encouraged a counter-Victorian way of life, in that they exactly reversed the old imperial assumptions. Now the other cultures are seen as the wise place, and we are taught to defer to them.” A passage from my old Lonely Planet “Thailand” is illustrative:
Recently, when staying in Phuket for an extended period (Kata-Karon-Naiharn area), I talked with a few Thai bungalow/restaurant proprietors who said that nudity on the beaches was what bothered them most about foreign travellers. These Thais took nudity as a sign of disrespect on the part of the travelers for the locals, rather than as a libertarian symbol or modern custom. I was even asked to make signs that they could post forbidding or discouraging nudity—I declined, forgoing a free bungalow for my stay.

Note the pointed assertion of independence—and the seemingly casual aside that it was an “extended” stay. There was a self-righteousness about the tone, of course, but I liked that Lonely Planet, unlike the other major guidebooks, didn’t accept advertisements, and that it donated five per cent of its profits to charity. (After the tsunami in December, the company gave nearly four hundred thousand dollars toward relief efforts.) I did occasionally wonder just how independent I was learning to be. When Lonely Planet set me down on an island like Ko Samui, then relatively unspoiled but already speckled with bungalows, I realized that I was seeing a parallel Thailand that bore little relation to the “real” thing. Serving up cultural comfort food is a traditional feature—or failing—of guides. Cairo is “no more than a winter suburb of London,” an 1898 Cook’s Tours pamphlet assured tourists. Richard Bangs, the co-founder of Mountain Travel Sobek, the adventure travel company, says that Lonely Planet travellers “like to think they’re out there on the edge, but they’re all reading the bible and moving in big flocks.”
Yet Tony Wheeler’s most important advice—reprinted in the guides until last year’s relaunch—was “Just go!” Don’t book hotels, don’t worry unduly about shots and itineraries or even buying a guidebook—just go. This was an existential call to arms that amounted to a politics and even a morality: more than one Lonely Planet author told me that had George W. Bush ever really travelled abroad the United States would not have invaded Iraq. The most serious political wrangle the company has got into is over publishing its Myanmar book despite international sanctions against that country and the stand taken by the country’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning dissident, Aung San Suu Kyi, who has urged travellers to boycott the junta. Lonely Planet’s “Myanmar (Burma)” guide pays deference to her argument, and lists the ways that you can minimize supporting the government, but concludes that travel “is the type of communication that in the long term can change lives and unseat undemocratic governments.”

Movements like Lonely Planet need their martyrs, and in the eighties I heard stories in guesthouses across Asia that Tony Wheeler had recently died in spectacular fashion. There were hundreds of variations of the tale, but all had Wheeler running out of luck at the end of the trail somewhere: in a train, bus, or motorcycle accident; from malaria; at a bullfight; at the hands of the mujahideen. Not for nothing was the “South-East Asia” guide, with its distinctive yolk-colored cover, known as the “yellow bible.” Even today, there are animated discussions on Lonely Planet’s online forum, “The Thorn Tree,” about whether Wheeler is the Jesus of travel or the Moses, “since the LP was not written, it was revealed.”
High in the western Hajar mountains in northern Oman, our four-wheel-drive Honda lurched down a dirt pass. The one-lane road plunged among the crags toward the goal far below: Wadi Bani Awf, an arroyo filled with date palms, a rare vein of green in an arid land. The brakes were squeaking and giving off a worrisome odor, and my right thigh quivered from jabbing the nonexistent passenger-side brake pedal whenever Tony bent to peer at the odometer, checking the trip distances listed in the Lonely Planet guide. He wasn’t planning to write about Oman—the Wheelers were here simply out of curiosity—but he checks every fact, everywhere. As the Lonely Planet author Ryan Ver Berkmoes puts it, “Tony is a trainspotter to the world.”
“This is rather nice, isn’t it?” Tony said. “Not a bad road at all.” From the back seat, Maureen gave a small sigh. Glimpsing a sign for the mountain village of Bilad Sayt, Tony stopped just past the turnoff. “Let’s go see it, shall we?” he said. He began a three-point turn, backing toward the cliff. “Oh, dear,” Maureen said. “Oh, dear, oh, dear, oh, drat!” The car kept backing. “Stop!” He stopped, six inches from the edge, and, after a moment, we all laughed. “I’m fine and so are you,” Tony said. And the village proved to be a wonder—a cluster of mud-brick houses clinging like a wasp’s nest to a cliff, circled by falcons. We might have taken the turnoff not to Bilad Sayt but to the seventeenth century.

Travelling with the Wheelers is like that—you take every side road and see much more than you expect, much more convivially, and at much higher speed. It began at the Dubai airport: Tony and Maureen, who travel very light, charged up the stairs to get to the front of the line at immigration, leaving me feeling sheepish for taking the escalator like everyone else. As we waited at the Hertz counter, Tony studied the road map that he had brought along and announced, “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the two countries with the highest rate of road accidents.” Then he was largely silent as we drove south, ignoring even the first camels.

The Lonely Planet guide had been rather vague about the procedure for crossing into Oman here, near Hatta, and on arriving at the Oman border we were told that we needed first to officially leave the Emirates—there had been an unmarked checkpoint at the Hatta Fort Hotel, a few miles back. “We’re in legal limbo,” Tony said, as we headed north. “Here we are coming back to the U.A.E., and we’re going to have to explain why we haven’t left yet.” “We’re going to have to explain this better in the book,” Maureen said.

“When you’re leaving J.F.K. Airport,” Tony continued, “they don’t ask you to go to the Hilton to get your passport stamped. So this is interesting.” Finding this Tony—Tony No. 2—was like tuning in a distant radio station late at night: nothing, nothing, and then a sudden flare of chatter. This occurred whenever he saw something strange: a pedestrian underpass in the middle of nowhere, an oddly translated sign—“Sale of Ice Cubes”—or the goat souk in Nizwa, where potential buyers give the billy goats’ testicles a considering squeeze.

For more than a week, we moved through Oman’s northern, more populous half in a long, clockwise oval. The days would begin with a 7:30 A.M. breakfast at which Tony buried himself in his map and Lonely Planet’s “Oman and the United Arab Emirates” and regional Arabian Peninsula guides, plotting the stops en route to that night’s hotel, which would usually be the best available. (The Wheelers’ room at the Chedi, in the capital, Muscat, cost some four hundred dollars a night.) He would toggle between the books, frowning: the Oman book provided far better cultural context but was woefully out of date. (No new edition was being readied, because the guide had sold only thirty-two thousand copies since it was published, in 2000.) And then, abruptly, we were off. Tony drove, and Maureen chatted or sang “Landslide” or “Diamonds on the Soles of Her Shoes” in a pleasing contralto, and we were in and out of the car all day long until nightfall. A few minutes into any museum or souk, you’d see Tony’s eyes turn glassy, and he’d twitch his map-of-Africa cap and say, “On, on.”

When Wheeler was ten, he asked for a globe and a filing cabinet for Christmas, and he is still a mixture of impulsive and compulsive—ideal qualities for a guidebook writer. He told me, “To research a big guidebook, you need some people who live in the country, but you also need some parachute artists, someone who can drop into a place and quickly assimilate, who can write about anywhere. I’m a parachute artist.”
We began to orient ourselves around the country’s ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, whose portrait—which shows a bearded, gravely smiling man with warm brown eyes—is as omnipresent as his public-works projects. Every museum in Muscat devoted extravagant space to Qaboos’s achievements (though none mentioned, as the Lonely Planet guides did, that he had kicked out the previous sultan, his father, in a bloodless coup in 1970, or that Qaboos’s father had been so resistant to Western innovation that he had banned even eyeglasses). A phrase from the English-language Oman Daily Observer became one of our refrains: “The Sultan is always thinking of the benefit of his people.”

Well aware that the country’s petroleum reserves are dwindling, Sultan Qaboos has encouraged “Omanization,” in which guest workers will be replaced by Omanis—and yet almost every hotel and restaurant we went to was staffed by Indians. And so “Omanization” became another, mildly sardonic refrain, as recurrent as Maureen’s remark whenever we left a restaurant recommended by Lonely Planet: “Take it out of the book.”

“The Omanis don’t have a café culture, so we never see them,” Maureen remarked one morning. “Part of it is they’ve got too much money and they don’t have to work,” Tony said. Later that day, a police car pulsed its siren at us so that three black sedans could sweep by. “Mercedes, of course,” Tony said. “You spend too long in places like Tanzania, where all the rich assholes and government officials drive around in their Mercedeses, and you begin to hate that car.” “It’s not Mercedes’ fault,” Maureen said. “Yes, it is!” Tony said. “They stand for that sort of thing. As a result, I will never own a Mercedes.” (The Wheelers own an Audi, a Mini, and a Lotus.)

The day we went to Bilad Sayt, we made our way down the pass afterward and had a late lunch. Then the question was how to get back around the mountains to our hotel in Nizwa. The main road lay to the southeast, but, looking at the map, Tony suggested a more direct route to the northwest. “It’s sealed roads, all the way,” he said, asserting a faith in the map, and the Sultan’s pavers, which proved unfounded eight miles in, when the road became dirt and began to labor up into the mountains. We came to one fork, then another, then a third and a fourth, all unmarked on the map and all lacking signs. The map suggested that we should be aiming at the village of Rumaylah, but the map was ridiculous. “Every road has to lead somewhere,” Tony said, sneaking a peek at his global-positioning device and turning toward the setting sun.

“You won’t ask for directions,” Maureen said. “No real man does,” Tony said. An hour later, we were going ten miles per hour on a road that had narrowed to a sinister goat track, in a canyon that bore no trace of human passage. “All this is is a lack of information,” Tony said. “We should have asked the restaurant owner the best way.” Maureen snorted. “And then you would have said ‘Tssh!’ and we would have still come this bloody road.” They both laughed. After a few more flying U-turns—the signature Wheeler driving move—we finally emerged from the mountains at dusk, three hours later, twenty-five miles north of where we expected to be. Rumaylah remained a rumor, somewhere behind us. As we turned south for Nizwa, Maureen saw a fort to the west, and, rather in the manner of a mother trying to distract a child from an approaching ice-cream truck, began a flow of chatter about the mountains to the east. “Should we take a quick look at the fort?” Tony asked. “A drive-by fort?” We had already been to half a dozen of the country’s five hundred forts, all somewhat of a piece: the pillowed room for the wali, or governor; the dungeons; the machicolations for pouring hot date syrup on invaders. Hearing nothing from the back seat, he continued, “I think there’s probably a book on the forts of Oman.”
“We’re not going to publish it,” Maureen said. “No, I meant there probably is one out there.” “Thank God.”

The young Tony Wheeler once drew painstaking maps of his walks around the neighborhood. It was, perhaps, a way of trying to hold on to an ever-shifting landscape. Wheeler’s father was an airport manager for British Overseas Airways Corporation, the precursor to British Airways, and the family kept moving: Pakistan, the Bahamas, Canada, America, England. “Being always the outsider, never spending two whole years in the same school, it does fuck you up,” Wheeler told me.
“Tony has a story for every occasion, but he’s not very good with personal questions,” the photographer Richard I’Anson, who has often travelled with Wheeler, says. “We were in Delhi together in 1997 when he got the news that his father had died. You would possibly expect that he’d talk with his friend about that, but I knew not to ask him about it then, and I wouldn’t ask him now.” Wheeler says, “I don’t think I was particularly close to either of my parents; there was an English coolness there—though I did love going to the airport with my father. But what the hell—I’m sure Maureen and I fucked up our kids, too.” The Wheelers have two children—Tashi, now twenty-four, and Kieran, twenty-two—and they brought them along nearly everywhere; hostels were their nursery schools. “My memories are all messed up from when I was younger,” Tashi Wheeler told me, cheerfully. “Sometimes I remember a place as Peru, and it was Jakarta. We were always travelling, travelling.”

In retrospect, the growth of Lonely Planet from such rootless soil is both unlikely and entirely apt. The Wheelers came along when the world had begun to tire of the strictly-for-tourists approach of Fodor’s and Frommer’s and Fielding’s, which was packed with alarming puns (the Hotel Piccadilly in London “puts shoppers right in the limey-light”); to tire of the naïveté propounded in books such as “How to Travel Without Being Rich” (1959), which declared, “Mexico is the best place in the world for economical travelers who like to bring back things to astonish their friends . . . woven straw geegaws, works of art in tin and heaven knows what else.” “In the seventies and eighties, there hadn’t been any new guides out for decades,” Mark Ellingham, who founded the competing Rough Guides in 1981, says. Then airlines deregulated, making cheap tickets widely available, just as Vietnam and China and, later, Eastern Europe were opening up. “We filled a need, but we were young and ignorant and amateurish.”

It was only after Lonely Planet’s India guide unexpectedly sold a hundred thousand copies, in 1980, that the Wheelers realized that their scrappy startup was a real business. But the enterprise remained disarmingly ad hoc; for a time, the “Africa on a Shoestring” book said, of the Comoros Islands, “We haven’t heard of anyone going there for a long time so we have no details to offer. If you do go, please drop us a line.” “Tony and Maureen would pluck these people out of a bar, or somewhere, and have complete confidence in them,” Michelle de Kretser, a former Lonely Planet publisher who is now a novelist, says. “In 1992, they handed me this plum job, running the new Paris office, which I was totally unqualified for. I said, ‘How do I do that?’ And they said, ‘You know, just go and do it, whatever—you know.’ ” For years, whenever problems arose, Tony would respond rather as the Red Queen did to Alice, saying, “Let’s just run faster!” And for years it all worked.

The Wheelers long maintained an implicit non-aggression pact with other countercultural handbooks. But, as Tony Wheeler tells it, in 1984 he noticed that the Moon Travel Handbook’s renowned Indonesia guide was seriously out of date, so he commissioned a book on that country. After Penguin bought a majority stake in Rough Guides, in 1996, Wheeler noticed that Rough Guides were undercutting Lonely Planet’s prices. “So we thought, How can we hit back?” he told me, with a steely grin. “We targeted their twelve or so top-selling guides and produced competitive titles for every one. They stopped being so aggressive on pricing.” “Penguin is one of the most ruthless media organizations in the world—it’d be happy to squash us like a bug,” Mark Carnegie, an investment banker who sits on Lonely Planet’s board, says. (“We completely compete with Lonely Planet, but we’re not squashing people,” Andrew Welham, who supervises the Rough Guides and the DK Eyewitness series for Penguin, observes.) “But Tony is the Rupert Murdoch of the alternative travel space,” Carnegie added. “He knows when and how to squash back.”

One afternoon in Tiwi, a pretty town on the coast road to Sur, the Wheelers and I had a very good Indian-food lunch. As we strolled out to the car, a small boy in a blue soccer jersey smiled and asked for “baisa, baisa”—money. He was the first beggar we’d met. “No baisa,” Maureen said in a friendly way. She showed a real interest in children, and always replied to them. This boy waited till we got in the car and then flipped her the bird. She flipped it back: “Sit and spin, kid!”
“I don’t know if you should do that, Maur,” Tony said calmly, as he drove off. “If you know what that gesture means, that means Western women know what it means, and that reinforces the idea that they’re loose and easy.” “If I weren’t in the car, I’d slap the little bastard,” Maureen said. “Would he do that to an Arabic woman? Would he do that to his own mother?”

Thirty years ago, Wheeler took a different view of cross-cultural sexual politics. He wrote, in “Across Asia on the Cheap,” that in Muslim countries women are going to “get their little asses grabbed,” so “if you can lay hands on one of the bastards, take advantage of it and rough him up a little.” In the early days, Lonely Planet advocated what might be called a playground model of behavior: here’s the score on Lebanese grass and Balinese mushrooms, here’s where to buy carpets in Iran before child-labor laws drive up the price, here’s how to sell blood in Kuwait to pay for the rugs. You should avoid unwashed fruit, and you should wear a short-hair wig to fool the uptight cats in Singapore immigration, but, in general, the world is yours.

As the guidebooks grew up, the museum model took hold: foreign cultures are fragile, and should be observed as if through glass; a practice you abhor may simply be a custom you don’t understand. In the 1988 edition of the guide to Papua New Guinea, a notoriously lawless place, Wheeler himself wrote, “It is very easy to apply inappropriate Western criteria, and what appears to be uncontrolled anarchy is often nothing of the sort. . . . A case that appears to be straightforward assault may well be a community-sanctioned punishment. Looting a store may be in lieu of the traditional division of a big man’s estate.”

The first edition of Lonely Planet’s Japan guide, in 1981, had lengthy treatments of swinging with Japanese couples, live sex shows, and toruko, establishments where men could get soaped up to full satisfaction. Over the years, this section was pruned and then eliminated. “When we were selling five thousand Japanese guidebooks a year, who cared what we said?” Maureen told me. “At fifty thousand, you have a different responsibility.” Though sales kept rising, by the late nineties Lonely Planet had begun to falter. The company’s rapid expansion—in 2000 it published eight new series, including “Watching Wildlife” and “City Maps”—was accompanied by constant cash-flow crises. Sixty per cent of the guides weren’t getting to the printer on time. “Everyone was lovely, but no one had a clue,” Maureen said, during one stretch of driving. “When Tony was away in 1998—he was travelling a lot, because he didn’t want to deal with it—I told the managers they had to go. And I said to Tony, ‘If you let them talk you out of it, I am leaving you.’ ” Tony kept his eyes on the road. Later, Maureen told me, “Without Tony, Lonely Planet wouldn’t exist; without me, it wouldn’t have held together.” The morning after the planes hit the World Trade Center, in 2001, the company called an emergency meeting, knowing that travel was about to plummet. A hundred people (nineteen per cent of the workforce) were later laid off, and author salaries were reduced by up to thirty per cent. The company was further buffeted by SARS, the terrorist bombing in Bali, the Iraq war, and the threat of avian flu, and it lost money for two and a half years running. The relaunch, a response to all those changing conditions, subordinated editorializing to giving travellers a well-stuffed factual cushion that they could place between themselves and danger or discomfort. Call it the information model. Tony Wheeler explains, “I would expect someone writing for us about Spain to delve into bullfights, and either to say it’s a cruel and primitive spectacle or to say that it’s just as great as Hemingway said—and, either way, here are the hours the bullring is open, and do bring sunscreen.”

At the same time, “Just go” was replaced, as a corporate ethos, by the words “attitude and authority,” which one hears in the Melbourne office every fifteen seconds or so. Equally common are references to the new “consumer segmentation model,” which sorts travellers into such categories as “global nomads” and “mature adventurers.” And the company that had prided itself on not taking advertisements is about to start a hotel-booking service on its Web site. “When Tony washed up on the deserted shores of Bali thirty years ago, it was great to ‘just go,’ ” John Ryan, Lonely Planet’s digital-project manager, says. “If you just went to Bali now, you might not have a place to stay. We’re thinking about every phase of the travel cycle—dream, plan, book, go, come back—and trying to fill each one with Lonely Planet content.” Like Apple and Starbucks and Ben & Jerry’s, all of which began as plucky alternatives, Lonely Planet has become a mainstream brand.

Last year, the company grossed seventy-two million dollars, with a before-tax profit margin of seventeen per cent. But the Wheelers’ withdrawal during this tumultuous period has left many authors feeling marooned. Sixteen Lonely Planet veterans have established a private e-mail network to trade yearning recollections of the old days of unfettered travel and unedited prose, of princely royalties and heavy drinking and broken marriages. “Now authors are data collectors for editors,” the author Joe Cummings told me. The veterans gripe that the editors don’t even return their e-mails, a state of affairs they call “black hole syndrome.” For their part, the Wheelers speak of “mad-author syndrome.” But they are equally skeptical of the company’s new marketing surveys and slogans: clearly, Maureen is attitude and Tony is authority. One night over dinner at a Melbourne restaurant, Maureen said, “I used to feel that Lonely Planet was very real—we’d steam stamps off letters and reuse them, and everyone who worked there became our friends. And then we hired all these people—” “These lawyers and accountants,” Tony said. “I hate paying them. I walk through our parking garage and see a Mercedes—a Mercedes!” “Anyway,” Maureen said, “the point is, we’re learning how to be people who just inspire—but Lonely Planet doesn’t feel real to me anymore.”

One measure of how the company has changed is that when the new head of trade publishing, Roz Hopkins, took the job, in 2002, she quickly, if regretfully, cancelled Wheeler’s forthcoming book about his travels in rice-growing countries. “That sort of book had been quite a dismal failure,” she told me, referring to other idiosyncratic Wheeler efforts featuring Richard I’Anson photographs. “They don’t articulate the message of the brand.” So Wheeler wound up underwriting “Rice Trails” with nearly forty thousand dollars of his own money—effectively using Lonely Planet as a vanity press.

The Wheelers often hear complaints that they have helped to ruin certain destinations—that, as Richard Bangs, of Mountain Travel Sobek, affectionately puts it, “Tony can turn an out-of-the-way secret place like Lombok into something that’s loved to death.” They respond that change is inevitable, that guidebooks don’t inspire travel so much as channel it, and that it’s better to have educated travellers than clucks on tour buses. But the way Tony Wheeler rushes about suggests that he feels with particular keenness the age-old traveller’s anxiety about getting there before it all goes. (As early as the eighteen-seventies, John Muir denounced the tourists who were ruining Yosemite as “scum.”) Wheeler’s fears were realized at one of Oman’s signature seasonal riverbeds, Wadi Bani Khalid. As we approached the wadi, deep in the mountains, the road became a rugged dirt track and Wheeler brightened; arduousness, for him, promises happiness. Then we rounded a bend and joined a new road swarming with construction workers. He sank back as if he’d been punched: “It’s appalling!” “The Sultan is always thinking of the benefit of his people,” Maureen murmured.

After we parked, five local boys shepherded us up to the rock pools, chattering away in the universal pidgin of the tourism encounter: “Where you from? What your name? First time come Oman?” The pools were a refreshing aquamarine, but they were also clotted with trash. The boys asked us to come for a Bedouin meal, and, when we declined, one boy suggested, “Give me money—one rial.” Taking our refusal slightly sulkily, they turned back toward the parking lot. “They’ll be proper little guides soon,” Maureen said. She considered the concrete picnic areas and the beginnings of what looked like a snack stand—a grader was noisily levelling the earth nearby—and said, “You have to destroy everything in order to appreciate what you have. They’ll learn that people are paying more to get away from all this.” We were soon back on the road, heading north. “You grow up, and then you grow old,” Maureen said suddenly. “The first part is all right . . .”

The modern version of straw geegaws is cultural capital in the form of stories and photographs. “Tony and Maureen are in the travel-information insurance business,” Mark Carnegie says. “If the educated consumer is spending ten thousand dollars on a vacation, and someone says to him, ‘For an extra thirty dollars, I will give you a sunrise that will make you cry’—well, he’s going to take out that insurance.”
Even Lonely Planet, however, hasn’t figured out a way to market its epiphanies other than by using the impoverished language of travel writing. And so “palm-fringed beaches” and “lush rain forests” and other “sleepy backwaters” are invariably counterpoised against “teeming cities” with their “bustling souks.” Every region has a “colorful history” and a “rich cultural tapestry.” And every place on earth is a “land of contrasts.” As the Arabian Peninsula guide observes, “Bedouin tribesmen park 4WDs alongside goat hair tents; veiled women chat on mobile phones while awaiting laser hair removal,” and so on.

Peering through the windshield as another unnamed village ghosted by—mud-brick houses, men in white slouched in the shade—Maureen said, “We’re outsiders, we don’t speak the language, we only glean what we can through what we read. I can see their lives, but I’d love to be in their heads for a few hours—what’s it like to be their lives?” Entranced by every sort of strangeness, Tony often wondered aloud: What are these “pee caps” that hotel bars forbid you to wear? Why are there so many “Gents Tailors” in the town of Sohar? But he never stopped, preferring to note the street misnamed on Lonely Planet’s Sohar map, and the absence of the promised biryani joints. He wants to discover by observation or exploration, but not to have to ask, a form of cheating. When I was younger, I might have inquired more myself—there was a time when every new thing, even durian slushies, seemed worth investigating. But now, I realized, I had been perfectly content to follow Wheeler’s lead, and so I was leaving Oman with a thoroughly researched yet tentative impression of a country of
forts, wadis, and a pleasant capital, Muscat.

I asked Wheeler what he thought Lonely Planet should do about Oman. He suggested that a small, high-priced book that focussed on the forts, the wadis, and Muscat might work—but in truth he seemed to be already looking ahead to his next destination, Ethiopia, and then to all the trips beyond. “In the early days,” he said, “doing the third or fourth edition of ‘South-East Asia on a Shoestring,’ I remember feeling like we were trapped: We set this up to travel, and all we’re doing is going to Singapore and Bangkok over and over, updating. ” “Now that the company is launched, Tony can really travel,” Maureen said. Tony thought that over, its possible meanings, and replied, “In many ways, I don’t think we’ve travelled a lot, because we’ve had the business distracting us. It got in the way.”

Late one afternoon, we hiked up Wadi Shab, a steep canyon. The first hour was an easy hike, and then it became a scramble over shaley outcroppings and around acacia thorns. Finally, as the canyon filled with shadows, we arrived at a crisp blue pool where a few local teen-agers were splashing about and diving into the adjacent underground caves. The last rays of sun lit the spot: a perfect reward after a long drive and a healthy walk. But Tony shifted with frustration as Maureen and I sat on a boulder and turned our faces to the sun. He had noticed three tourists in bathing suits above us on the faint indications of a trail. “I’ll just go on for twenty more minutes,” Tony said. We got up and walked with him a ways, and then Maureen took up a perch against the canyon wall. “I’m not going on,” she said. “I’ll stay here.” I was thinking about nightfall, and finding the path down, and the two-hour drive along the sea cliffs to the hotel.

“Well, I’m just going on for a bit,” he said. Having, across the years, thrown off most of his burdens, Tony No. 1 now adjusted the one piece of baggage that remained—his backpack, which was ringed with sweat—and strode on as Tony No. 2. Or was it the reverse? In a few moments, he was around the corner. “The trick with Tony is, if I’d been in that comfortable place by the pool he would have gone on and on,” Maureen said. “But, knowing I’m in this uncomfortable place, he’ll feel guilty and come back sooner. He has to go around that bend, though—it’s his obsession. He has to go farther than the tourists. And, if there’s someone else around that bend, he’ll keep going until he’s past them, until he’s the farthest out.”

7. Where is the U.S. dollar going?
New Yorker

In the 2004 Hollywood comedy “EuroTrip,” which chronicles the adventures of a group of American teen-agers on a debased modern version of the Grand Tour, our heroes end up trapped in Bratislava with a mere $1.83 in their pockets. Things look bleak, until they discover just what a dollar and change will buy: a luxury suite, massages, three-course meals with champagne, and assiduously servile service. Feeling flush, they toss their waiter a five-cent tip. He turns to his boss and says, “A nickel! You see this? I quit! I open my own hotel.”

If only. Nowadays, when you’re abroad, you’re lucky if $1.83 buys you a cup of coffee. In the past three years, the value of the dollar has fallen by more than fifty per cent against the euro and twenty-five per cent against the yen, and, a recent rally notwithstanding, most analysts say that the dollar is only going to get weaker in the months to come. Europeans now routinely fly across the Atlantic to go shopping, and they have also started to nose around in the American real-estate market. You know the dollar’s in trouble when our puffed-up real estate starts looking cheap.

The dollar has fallen for a simple reason: Americans spend a lot more than they save. American consumers, of course, are known for living on credit, and they buy hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth a year of foreign goods—cars, TVs, T-shirts, khakis. In addition, since 2001 the American government has been running giant budget deficits, thanks to the magical combination of tax cuts and spending increases. We don’t have enough money at home to pay for all this spending, so we borrow from foreigners to make up the difference. Because we keep piling on this foreign debt—more than three trillion dollars so far—and have no clear strategy for paying it back, people are made anxious about the United States economy; this anxiety encourages them to sell dollars, and that drives down the value of our currency.

The dollar’s decline, grim as it seems, has so far had little impact on the everyday lives of most Americans. To be sure, there are new burdens: the price of truffles is up sharply, and the cost of a trip to Paris now rivals that of a semester in college. But inflation and interest rates are still low, the stock market is above where it was three years ago, and Americans have had no trouble slaking their appetite for foreign-made goods. Doomsayers have been predicting for a while that the profligacy will lead to serious trouble. So why hasn’t it?

One answer is that Asia won’t let it. Last year, Asian countries invested almost four hundred billion dollars in the United States, mostly in government bonds. China is effectively taking most of its excess national savings and lending it to the United States. The Japanese, who despite their creaking economy remain flush with savings, bought a quarter trillion dollars of American debt last year, even though the interest is lousy and the assets themselves are losing value. More than any other nation in history, the United States depends, economically, on the kindness of strangers. Right now, Asian investors appear very kind.

Markets are hardly known for their tenderness. Usually, you can assume that everyone in a market is trying to make as much money as possible, with as little risk, but the currency market isn’t like most others. In the market for the dollar, many of the players have other things on their mind. China needs to go on selling Americans hundreds of billions in exports in order to keep its economy humming. A weaker dollar makes that harder. Asian central banks also already own trillions of dollars in American assets. As the dollar falls, so does the value of those assets. There are plenty of other traders in the currency markets—who have the luxury of being single-minded regarding profit—but the Asian banks are powerful enough to be, in effect, the lenders of last resort. As long as it’s in their self-interest to keep America afloat, the dollar will not crash.

Of course, the Chinese and the Japanese could decide that the costs of the falling dollar are too great, and suddenly stop (or, at least, cut back sharply) their lending to the United States. This would lead to a so-called “hard landing” for the U.S. economy: high inflation, punitive interest rates, collapsing stock prices and housing prices. It would also lead to bedlam for China and Japan. Their best customers would effectively be unable to afford their wares. To paraphrase John Paul Getty: If you owe the bank a hundred dollars, you’ve got a problem. If you owe the bank three trillion dollars, the bank’s got a problem.

There’s a good chance, then, that the landing will be soft—we lose the truffles but keep our homes—as long as everyone involved in keeping the dollar aloft continues to play the same game. No one, in Asia or anywhere else, wants to be the last guy out. What the Chinese and the Japanese do depends in large part on what they think everyone else is going to do. If the Chinese get the idea that Japan’s commitment to the dollar is wavering, or if they decide that the United States has no interest in altering its deadbeat ways, then they may try to make a run for it. Then again, that threat could act as a prod to keep the Americans in line. The currency market is a great example of what George Soros calls “reflexivity”: people’s predictions about what will happen to the dollar end up having a major impact on what actually does happen to the dollar. Our lenders are trying to strike a delicate balance: they’d like the dollar’s predicament to seem dire enough to make us change, but not so dire as to spark panic. So be afraid. Just don’t be very afraid.

In this magazine, also read Nick Paumgarten’s Dangerous Game: The hazardous allure of backcountry skiing.

8. The Glow House

Located at 323 Palmerston Boulevard (North of College Street)
Running from 7to 23 April, 2005

Kelly Mark’s Glow House #3 is a project set in a Toronto residence, a typical detached urban house, where a number of television sets have been distributed throughout the interior. All the televisions are tuned to the same channel, and when the house is viewed from the street at night, the effect of each small flicker of light from every CRT is compounded, together becoming a vivid “pulse” of light emanating from its windows. As the television program scenes change, the windows flash in sync, and the pronounced hypnotic effect grows with the sensation that the house interior may be filled not with many lights but with one large, palpitating source.


8.5 A polar bear chased by hungry whales.

9. Jorge Drexler, Eco

"Drexler won the Oscar for best original song for "Al otro lado del río" (from The Motorcycle Diaries). Eco is his most recent album, available only as an import and totally in Spanish, so we only catch, like, every fifth word. One of the songs is either about shirt buttons or bottle caps. Doesn't matter. This stuff grooves. Extra props to Drexler for managing not to hurl during the sacrilege that was Antonio Banderas's performance at the Oscars."

10. Songs of the Day:
The theme from The Office
Maps – Yeah Yeah Yeahs
Kite – U2
Is a Woman – Lambchop
The Blower’s Daughter – Damien Rice
Earthquake Weather – Beck
Here, My Dear – Marvin Gaye
A Man and a Woman – U2
Thrasher – Neil Young
Stardust – Willie Nelson
Not about Love – Fiona Apple

11. Remembering Terry Fox

12. ART: CY TWOMBLY
See this essay on Cy Twombly’s art.


Cy Twombly
The Four Seasons: Summer
1994, Synthetic polymer paint, oil, pencil and crayon on canvas
10' 3 3/4" x 6' 7 1/8" (314.5 x 201 cm)


Cy Twombly
Tiznit
1953
White lead, house paint, crayon, and pencil on canvas
53 1/2" x 6' 2 1/2" (135.9 x 189.2 cm)


Cy Twombly
Wilder Shores of Love
1985
Oil, crayon, and pencil on plywood
55 1/8 x 47 1/4" (140 x 120 cm)